In 2009, I hope I never have to hear or see any of these people when I turn on my TV or read in my paper:
Tyra Banks Not everything is about you!
Dr. Phil Not everything's about you either!
Kathy Griffin Only if she comes out w/ new material instead of just talking about her run-ins with ACTUAL celebrities
Paris Hilton The face of STD
Britney Spears I used to like her but one day I woke up and discovered good music is not engineered on a soundboard and what beautiful woman should look like
Chris Crocker I'll leave Britney alone if you go away and never post a video on YouTube.
P.Diddy What he lacks in artistic and musical talent he makes it up in marketing second class products like clothing, vodka, and reality TV shows.
J.Lo Please stop making movies even the Chinese don't want to bootleg: Monster-in-law, Anaconda, Maid in Manhattan, The Wedding Planner, Gigli and you ruined Jersey Girl for me! I will never forgive you for that. That movie was actually pretty good after the point you died in the script.
Donald Trump Seriously, enough w/ the hair and pink ties
Jessica Simpson The year you break up with Romo is the year Cowboys win the Super Bowl
Amy Winehouse Get out of the pub and get back in the recording studio
Jonas Brothers Disney puppets w/ purity rings. Are you guys even actual brothers? Because one of you is not even good looking at all
George W. Bush Wake me up if he chokes on a pretzel and actually dies this time
Rosie O'Donnell The fat, obnoxious and not funny version of Ellen
The Hills and anyone associated with it Especially Heidi and Spencer, unless it's about their tragic death
Kardashian Sisters It's not like we've never seen a sex tape before...
And pretty much all the reality TV shows out there. Oh, and if your sister is famous and for whatever the reason your parents decided to capitalize on it even more by putting you on TV or in front of the press, do us a favor and just disappear already. We're not interested in you even if you do remotely look like your sibling in bad lighting. You hear that? Ashlee, Haylie, Ali
Friday, December 26, 2008
Friday, December 12, 2008
My Long Term Trades
I've been wanting to make more long term plays for a while except I can never quite lose the fear and I constantly look to see where the stock is trading at and that interfers with my short term trading. Personally I feel the general market is still in a down trend so I've been looking for things to short. Although, I do have to say that it does feel a lot more positive than before and it could be the potential of gov't stepping to help out the auto industry. There are a lot more political factors driving the market instead of just fundamental earnings. It's in a bit of a no mans land right now. I don't feel comfortable getting long when I can see some clear resistance meanwhile there's no point getting in front of the train trying to short. Because of this I've only taken some very small positions in my long term trading account.
I shorted ITRI on Monday after it shot up. It looked through out the day but it got pretty painful in the afternoon when it made another up move for couple of points. It did look like the sellers came back into control on this stock and the general market so I figured that I'd hold on to this and if it doesn't gap down the next day I'll cover it. Fortunately it did gap down the next day, except I was late to the office so after things turn sour again I covered it for a much smaller loss.
On top of that equity short, I actually sold some naked call options as well for the 60 strike price. When it looked like it wasn't going to work out I covered those and lost about $75 total, which isn't all that bad for my first option trade. The reason I said it's not bad b/c it could've been totally disastrous. I sold naked calls which means my risk could be unlimited. Also on top of that I didn't quite consider the time to expiration and how much this ITRI could move. I was only looking at the short term chart, which I do believe is going to consolidate here but surely a 10 point in a day is nothing surprising for this guy.
I actually got a call from the Pit on Friday asking about this trade and what my rationale was. I was really looking at this as three separate trades, the two options contracts I sold and equities short and I've calculated the amount that I was willing to lose. Obviously somebody in the backroom thought I was taking on too much risk and I don't blame them for thinking that; I thought so a little bit myself, which is why I covered my positions. Anyway, I need to be more careful with time to expiration and a stock's delta if I'm trading options from now on.
MELI was another short I had and like ITRI I looked for reasons to stay in the trade but I eventually covered it for a small profit after it hit my pullback. I got into CX short and it looked really good until the next day that I covered before it went to a new high. Sadly Wednesday, CX came out with negative news and drove the stock down. I got into HURN and it's the same story... hold on as long as I can but eventually cover for a small profit after a pullback.
I'm glad I took these trades b/c I'm applying the discipline of defining my risk reward prior to getting into the trade and adjusting my pullback as the trade goes in my favor. I got into small positions just because I don't want the P&L to affect my other trading and the market isn't quite setting up like I'd like. I don't know if there's a particular reason that I've traded almost all Nasdaq stocks in these long term, it's probably just b/c they're what came across my tickers at the time.
On a slight side note, I've been somewhat whining about the fact that I paid for a new monitor right before the new policy go into effect that if you yahtzee you get a second monitor for free. Well, another way to get a monitor for free is if you hit certain profit level. I was almost there so I sent in a request anyway and I was very happy to see that it got approved. Starting sometime next week I hope, I'll be trading with three monitors. I know the Pit is trying to get me set up so that I could at least see options quotes, which will be important come expiration date on this coming Friday. I plan to use my third monitor for options but other than that I'm not sure...
A friend of mine that's been trading part time contacted me about Kershner and we went out to lunch on Tuesday and I showed him the floor a bit afterwards. Funny enough another guy just messaged me on Facebook. I'm getting close to the HP status and I hope to earn the trust of the company soon to allow me take on students but that's probably still a good 6 months away. However, if I do have friends applying to Kershner at that time I sure would love to have them on my team. It's a bit of a wistful thinking at this time but I'm definitely making it a goal to improve my trading, make more money, and become a coach.
It's only December 12th and I've already met my profit goal for the month. Let's kick some ass the rest of this month, finish out the year strong, and build momentum heading into 2009. There's a Fed meeting next week. Happy trading!
I shorted ITRI on Monday after it shot up. It looked through out the day but it got pretty painful in the afternoon when it made another up move for couple of points. It did look like the sellers came back into control on this stock and the general market so I figured that I'd hold on to this and if it doesn't gap down the next day I'll cover it. Fortunately it did gap down the next day, except I was late to the office so after things turn sour again I covered it for a much smaller loss.
On top of that equity short, I actually sold some naked call options as well for the 60 strike price. When it looked like it wasn't going to work out I covered those and lost about $75 total, which isn't all that bad for my first option trade. The reason I said it's not bad b/c it could've been totally disastrous. I sold naked calls which means my risk could be unlimited. Also on top of that I didn't quite consider the time to expiration and how much this ITRI could move. I was only looking at the short term chart, which I do believe is going to consolidate here but surely a 10 point in a day is nothing surprising for this guy.
I actually got a call from the Pit on Friday asking about this trade and what my rationale was. I was really looking at this as three separate trades, the two options contracts I sold and equities short and I've calculated the amount that I was willing to lose. Obviously somebody in the backroom thought I was taking on too much risk and I don't blame them for thinking that; I thought so a little bit myself, which is why I covered my positions. Anyway, I need to be more careful with time to expiration and a stock's delta if I'm trading options from now on.
MELI was another short I had and like ITRI I looked for reasons to stay in the trade but I eventually covered it for a small profit after it hit my pullback. I got into CX short and it looked really good until the next day that I covered before it went to a new high. Sadly Wednesday, CX came out with negative news and drove the stock down. I got into HURN and it's the same story... hold on as long as I can but eventually cover for a small profit after a pullback.
I'm glad I took these trades b/c I'm applying the discipline of defining my risk reward prior to getting into the trade and adjusting my pullback as the trade goes in my favor. I got into small positions just because I don't want the P&L to affect my other trading and the market isn't quite setting up like I'd like. I don't know if there's a particular reason that I've traded almost all Nasdaq stocks in these long term, it's probably just b/c they're what came across my tickers at the time.
On a slight side note, I've been somewhat whining about the fact that I paid for a new monitor right before the new policy go into effect that if you yahtzee you get a second monitor for free. Well, another way to get a monitor for free is if you hit certain profit level. I was almost there so I sent in a request anyway and I was very happy to see that it got approved. Starting sometime next week I hope, I'll be trading with three monitors. I know the Pit is trying to get me set up so that I could at least see options quotes, which will be important come expiration date on this coming Friday. I plan to use my third monitor for options but other than that I'm not sure...
A friend of mine that's been trading part time contacted me about Kershner and we went out to lunch on Tuesday and I showed him the floor a bit afterwards. Funny enough another guy just messaged me on Facebook. I'm getting close to the HP status and I hope to earn the trust of the company soon to allow me take on students but that's probably still a good 6 months away. However, if I do have friends applying to Kershner at that time I sure would love to have them on my team. It's a bit of a wistful thinking at this time but I'm definitely making it a goal to improve my trading, make more money, and become a coach.
It's only December 12th and I've already met my profit goal for the month. Let's kick some ass the rest of this month, finish out the year strong, and build momentum heading into 2009. There's a Fed meeting next week. Happy trading!
Sunday, December 7, 2008
My Saturday
I think I spent just about the entire day shopping... I don't remember exactly when I left the house, somewhere around 11am or noon and I didn't get back until 7pm.
Stop #1: Home Depot. I went to see if they have the washer and dryer I want on sale, looked at different materials and colors for the blinds, and compared a few different light fixtures for outside of the house.
Stop #2: Ethan Allen. Looking for office desk and bar stools.
Stop #3: The Domain. I think I'm going to get a PS3 for the Blu Ray, can't quite decide what TV to put in my room. I don't need a big one since I plan on mounting it to the wall; 30" at most. Looked around some stores for wine glasses and stuff for the kitchen.
Stop #4: Z Gallerie. Technically still in The Domain but I spent a lot more time here. Looking for bar stools, bed covers, shams, and other accessories. Picked up two photograph prints by Alan Blaustine. Couldn't find the other two that I was looking for so I might go back and see if they have them back in stock or ask the store to try to ship it.
Stop #5: Sam's Club. Looking for a TV.
Stop #6: Costco. TV again and other furniture stuff. They also have the charging valet station I like for a lot cheaper.
Stop #7: Pier 1. I think I found the bar stools and office desk I like here, plus a few other decorative items.
Stop #8: Crate & Barrel. Finally decided on the wine glasses, looked at some shams and coverlets
I was planning on staying at Crate & Barrel longer but I bought some pork products that need to be refrigriated at Costco so I cut it short. Otherwise I was gonna go to Target and Restoration Hardware as well. There's also Pottery Barn still.
Maybe all this wasn't necessary but I wanted to see all what's out there and what might work well together and fit into my budget. I'm not quite sure why but a lot of stuff are more expensive than I thought it would be. It's probably best that I don't go on The Price is Right any time. For example, I thought I could get a pretty good office desk for under $400, $500 at most but Ethan Allen had one for like almot $1500. Bar stools I was hoping I can get some real steals at below $100 but I saw some for $300, $500+... I don't know if anybody felt this way but since I'm making my own money instead of relying on my allowance I've definitely been more concerned and aware of my budget.
Speaking of budget... Costco was ridiculous. There were almost no parking at all available. Some other stores and shopping malls were all pretty full, too. People are definitely out looking at stuff but I'm curious to see how many people actually bought. The retail industry has gone all-in betting on the holiday shopping season. Just looking at Austin is an isolated, blip of the big picture, but if you ask me I probably wouldn't mind longing some Costco stocks at the right price. Ethan Allen I'd have to go short. I should've gone to Best Buy. I'm going to try to find time for that.
My dad seems to think some of my photos are good enough to be framed and put up in our house. I do want to get photoshop and process some of them. It would be nice to have more of a personal touch in the house.
Stop #1: Home Depot. I went to see if they have the washer and dryer I want on sale, looked at different materials and colors for the blinds, and compared a few different light fixtures for outside of the house.
Stop #2: Ethan Allen. Looking for office desk and bar stools.
Stop #3: The Domain. I think I'm going to get a PS3 for the Blu Ray, can't quite decide what TV to put in my room. I don't need a big one since I plan on mounting it to the wall; 30" at most. Looked around some stores for wine glasses and stuff for the kitchen.
Stop #4: Z Gallerie. Technically still in The Domain but I spent a lot more time here. Looking for bar stools, bed covers, shams, and other accessories. Picked up two photograph prints by Alan Blaustine. Couldn't find the other two that I was looking for so I might go back and see if they have them back in stock or ask the store to try to ship it.
Stop #5: Sam's Club. Looking for a TV.
Stop #6: Costco. TV again and other furniture stuff. They also have the charging valet station I like for a lot cheaper.
Stop #7: Pier 1. I think I found the bar stools and office desk I like here, plus a few other decorative items.
Stop #8: Crate & Barrel. Finally decided on the wine glasses, looked at some shams and coverlets
I was planning on staying at Crate & Barrel longer but I bought some pork products that need to be refrigriated at Costco so I cut it short. Otherwise I was gonna go to Target and Restoration Hardware as well. There's also Pottery Barn still.
Maybe all this wasn't necessary but I wanted to see all what's out there and what might work well together and fit into my budget. I'm not quite sure why but a lot of stuff are more expensive than I thought it would be. It's probably best that I don't go on The Price is Right any time. For example, I thought I could get a pretty good office desk for under $400, $500 at most but Ethan Allen had one for like almot $1500. Bar stools I was hoping I can get some real steals at below $100 but I saw some for $300, $500+... I don't know if anybody felt this way but since I'm making my own money instead of relying on my allowance I've definitely been more concerned and aware of my budget.
Speaking of budget... Costco was ridiculous. There were almost no parking at all available. Some other stores and shopping malls were all pretty full, too. People are definitely out looking at stuff but I'm curious to see how many people actually bought. The retail industry has gone all-in betting on the holiday shopping season. Just looking at Austin is an isolated, blip of the big picture, but if you ask me I probably wouldn't mind longing some Costco stocks at the right price. Ethan Allen I'd have to go short. I should've gone to Best Buy. I'm going to try to find time for that.
My dad seems to think some of my photos are good enough to be framed and put up in our house. I do want to get photoshop and process some of them. It would be nice to have more of a personal touch in the house.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
My Barcelona
We got to spend a few extra days in Barcelona prior to the cruise. Here are a few pictures from around the city.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
My Nerdiness
I'll admit I'm kind of a nerd sometimes. There are things that have deep scientific or mathematical theory behind them I find them deeply interesting. So while going through my RSS feed today I came across this article about Neflix offering $1 million to whoever can improve their recommendation system by 10%. Make sure to read the New York Times article if you find this interesting... I know I certainly did. I thought this was a really cool example about Bayesian theorem on conditional probability application but after reading some other nerdy blogs it might not be... I'm kind of confused now; need to do more reading. **Sarah, if you guys learn about Bayesian in your statistics class you can show this to your prof for some brownie points.
All I remember about Bayesian from statistics class is that it uses past data and application of regression analysis to determine future probability. In the case of Netflix, it's using past ratings to determine what movies the viewer might also find interesting. Other companies like Amazon uses this application as well to see what else you might want to buy. What's funny about the article is that the movie Napoleon Dynamite is throwing off the result by quite a bit... same applies to a few other polarizing films that people either love it or hate it.
All I remember about Bayesian from statistics class is that it uses past data and application of regression analysis to determine future probability. In the case of Netflix, it's using past ratings to determine what movies the viewer might also find interesting. Other companies like Amazon uses this application as well to see what else you might want to buy. What's funny about the article is that the movie Napoleon Dynamite is throwing off the result by quite a bit... same applies to a few other polarizing films that people either love it or hate it.
While I was asking around the office to see if anybody would know Bayesian off the top of their head since it was close to the opening bell and I didn't have the time to try different searches in Google (at first I thought it was Keynesian but he's an economist so I knew I was wrong), Eric mentioned something about using that for trading... interesting; more in-depth thoughts later.
I also came across this item on a list of recommended gift for music lovers this Christmas. It's a shirt with a playable drum set on it and the sound comes through its built-in speakers. It's only $29.99... I'm really tempted to get it but I could also foresee some problems this causes, such as people coming up to touch or punch me to play w/ the drum set themselves. Nonetheless, I think it's really cool.
Monday, December 1, 2008
My Return
Back in Austin now... We got back to Houston around 9pm last night and hung out at my sister's place for a while after she picked us up at the airport. I got sick I think the second to last day of the cruise and I spent the entire trip back sneezing, coughing, and sipping on water b/c the air in the airplane cabin is really dry and it hurts my respiratory system. That's what I get for sleeping without a blanket for a few days and not dressed warm enough for those city tour buses with the exposed top deck. After being in transit for about 21 hrs I took a little nap and drove back to Austin at about 3:30 in the morning to go to work.
I'm not sure if it's b/c of the fact that I'm sick or that I'm still adjusting to being on land but I felt as if equilibrium is off. It wasn't a dizzy feeling; it was more like as if I'm still rocking back and forth with the motion of the ocean. Regardless, I didn't feel well at all trading today. My first trade I accidentally took about 1/3 more than the max size that I'm comfortable with and when I went to cover the position I over-covered as well. I pushed the position against myself and triggered my own stop. It's pretty stupid if you ask me. Sadly I spent the rest of the day trying to get back to even instead of catching up on my RSS feed like I intended. Pretty light volume but we still dropped 600+ point... craziness. I think I looked at a lot these index ETFs and they were only about 70% its relative volume.
Lots of stuff to do right now, not to mention the 800+ pictures from the trip I want to go through. Still a lot of stuff to do around the new house as well. Once I got the pictures ready I'll have them up in a separate post. I think I've gotten better... I dunno, I might just be spotting interesting things more readily compared to before. My dad messed with the camera and from time to time I would have problems with exposure and focusing... nothing too major though.
I got to thinking about the next step during the trip when I could get some peace and quiet. I'm going to start working on options trading strategies. I put in a request for an options account and it could take anywhere from 2 days to 2 weeks I think is what the pit told me. I'm inclined to believe the later which is perfectly fine with me. Options is still pretty foreign to me but this gives me time to read more and refine my strategy.
I also spent some time talking to my dad about our business. We're probably going to try to make a run for it in Europe although consumer behavior or habit for our specific products might be a little different compared to the US and the market might be very fragmented. We got to talking a little bit about me starting to do more as well, on the financial and sales front with the family business. I don't think I would mind picking up some Spanish or German and try to enter the European market but there's a part of me that that doesn't want to family business. Growing up I always know people murmur that I'll probably turn out to be a bum and just rely on my parents' money and that's in fact been a motivator at times. Good part of me wants to blaze my own trails and do my own thing. At the same time, I know how much my parents put into this business and how hard they've worked to get to where they are. In a way it's their legacy and it's not something you just discard easily. If I can do that and trading while maintaining the necessary focus I certainly won't mind. We'll have to see how we can phase it over to me and if we do I'd have to concentrate on a different subject when I go back for my MBA.
I'm not sure if it's b/c of the fact that I'm sick or that I'm still adjusting to being on land but I felt as if equilibrium is off. It wasn't a dizzy feeling; it was more like as if I'm still rocking back and forth with the motion of the ocean. Regardless, I didn't feel well at all trading today. My first trade I accidentally took about 1/3 more than the max size that I'm comfortable with and when I went to cover the position I over-covered as well. I pushed the position against myself and triggered my own stop. It's pretty stupid if you ask me. Sadly I spent the rest of the day trying to get back to even instead of catching up on my RSS feed like I intended. Pretty light volume but we still dropped 600+ point... craziness. I think I looked at a lot these index ETFs and they were only about 70% its relative volume.
Lots of stuff to do right now, not to mention the 800+ pictures from the trip I want to go through. Still a lot of stuff to do around the new house as well. Once I got the pictures ready I'll have them up in a separate post. I think I've gotten better... I dunno, I might just be spotting interesting things more readily compared to before. My dad messed with the camera and from time to time I would have problems with exposure and focusing... nothing too major though.
I got to thinking about the next step during the trip when I could get some peace and quiet. I'm going to start working on options trading strategies. I put in a request for an options account and it could take anywhere from 2 days to 2 weeks I think is what the pit told me. I'm inclined to believe the later which is perfectly fine with me. Options is still pretty foreign to me but this gives me time to read more and refine my strategy.
I also spent some time talking to my dad about our business. We're probably going to try to make a run for it in Europe although consumer behavior or habit for our specific products might be a little different compared to the US and the market might be very fragmented. We got to talking a little bit about me starting to do more as well, on the financial and sales front with the family business. I don't think I would mind picking up some Spanish or German and try to enter the European market but there's a part of me that that doesn't want to family business. Growing up I always know people murmur that I'll probably turn out to be a bum and just rely on my parents' money and that's in fact been a motivator at times. Good part of me wants to blaze my own trails and do my own thing. At the same time, I know how much my parents put into this business and how hard they've worked to get to where they are. In a way it's their legacy and it's not something you just discard easily. If I can do that and trading while maintaining the necessary focus I certainly won't mind. We'll have to see how we can phase it over to me and if we do I'd have to concentrate on a different subject when I go back for my MBA.
Friday, November 21, 2008
My Test
Look, I’m a patient man. In fact, I consider myself to be very patient. You’d have to be in this household w/ a constant hormonal mother, and by hormonal I meant that as a euphemism for psycho. If my mother had been an alcoholic or has Alzheimer it would’ve been easier. It would at least help us explain the crazy mood swings she has. Sad thing is, whenever things aren’t going perfectly her way or she sense a little bit of stress she takes it out on the rest of us. So in fact, you’d either have to be very patient in order to survive in this family or you’d have to be insane just like her…
The thing is that I don’t get angry hardly ever at all, but when I do you’d better watch out. I don’t like it when I’m angry, and you sure as hell won’t like it when I’m angry. No, it’s not like I turn green with raging muscle from my head down to my purple shorts but every man has his limits. My boiling point is a lot higher than most but that also means that when I reach that point it’s going to be hotter and burn much more. Right now, I’m being tested. Ever since I’ve been on board this stupid ship I’ve been tested. First they tell us the excursion to Granada and Alhambra is full and we can’t go, now they’re telling us that we can’t go on shore to Morocco b/c of visa problems while the agents back in the States told us that we’d be able to if we go w/ an excursion group. I don’t know if it’s b/c of the international staff they have on board here but the way they say no is very hard to take or maybe I just have my heart set on going to Alhambra and Marakech and the rest of Morocco. They don’t just tell you “I’m sorry, no.” They like rip your heart out and directly shoot you down. It feels ten times worse than a girl breaking up with you I swear.
I really don’t like to complain. I don’t. But sometimes you really just gotta puke and let it all out. Unfortunately the blog-sphere becomes an easy outlet for puking.
Anyway, the Alhambra situation was eventually resolved since there were so many people on board wanted to go. I estimated about 7 tour buses with 40 people on each bus, or about 300 people. However, right now we’re docking at Casablanca and I can see the King Hassan II Mosque no more than a couple of miles from me but I’m stuck on this god awful ship filled w/ old people. It really makes me want to go berserk and burn this ship down.
I’ve been on a cruise couple of years back in the Caribbean’s but this ship just seems to be filled w/ old people. It’s as if the entire baby boomer generation from across the globe decided to book this cruise. This cruise is fully booked… makes me wonder if the global economy slowdown and credit crisis we hear in the news so routinely is just a joke. **memo to self: find companies that profit from baby boomers other than ISRG… something related to hip replacement or diabetes. I joked w/ Sarah the other day that the distribution curve for age on board if severely skewed to the right and if you run a t-test or z-test for my age I’d fall outside of even two standard deviations (if you are unfamiliar with statistics lingo, 2 standard deviations, at least in a normal distribution bell curve includes roughly 95% of the entire population)
I’m quite possibly the worst target customer for cruises. It’s like dying of a slow death for me. The only difference between prison and this is that there’s a poker table on this ship. Even the internet on board is slow. I don’t do slow. There are very few exceptions, like dancing and kissing. I should’ve been a New Yorker, really. I cannot stand the pace these people are moving and there’s no way to pass them in the hallways b/c other than the fact it’s narrower than usually, these old people travel in groups. Now I know what the scene you see in movies or commercials where a flock of sheep walk out onto the highway while you’re driving your jeep around in Ireland feels like. I am really considering running around the ship and put those slow moving vehicle signs on people’s ass, you know, the ones they have for like farming vehicles traveling on the highways. It’s not just mind-numbingly slow. I can feel a lot of other body parts going numb… no wonder there’s a demand for Viagra.
Dow cracked the 8,000 resistance and I really want to trade. My worst fear is that it's going to crack during the two weeks I'm gone. At first it looked like it was going to hold. I have no idea what's going to happen. It looks like Asia is up overnight so who knows.
The thing is that I don’t get angry hardly ever at all, but when I do you’d better watch out. I don’t like it when I’m angry, and you sure as hell won’t like it when I’m angry. No, it’s not like I turn green with raging muscle from my head down to my purple shorts but every man has his limits. My boiling point is a lot higher than most but that also means that when I reach that point it’s going to be hotter and burn much more. Right now, I’m being tested. Ever since I’ve been on board this stupid ship I’ve been tested. First they tell us the excursion to Granada and Alhambra is full and we can’t go, now they’re telling us that we can’t go on shore to Morocco b/c of visa problems while the agents back in the States told us that we’d be able to if we go w/ an excursion group. I don’t know if it’s b/c of the international staff they have on board here but the way they say no is very hard to take or maybe I just have my heart set on going to Alhambra and Marakech and the rest of Morocco. They don’t just tell you “I’m sorry, no.” They like rip your heart out and directly shoot you down. It feels ten times worse than a girl breaking up with you I swear.
I really don’t like to complain. I don’t. But sometimes you really just gotta puke and let it all out. Unfortunately the blog-sphere becomes an easy outlet for puking.
Anyway, the Alhambra situation was eventually resolved since there were so many people on board wanted to go. I estimated about 7 tour buses with 40 people on each bus, or about 300 people. However, right now we’re docking at Casablanca and I can see the King Hassan II Mosque no more than a couple of miles from me but I’m stuck on this god awful ship filled w/ old people. It really makes me want to go berserk and burn this ship down.
I’ve been on a cruise couple of years back in the Caribbean’s but this ship just seems to be filled w/ old people. It’s as if the entire baby boomer generation from across the globe decided to book this cruise. This cruise is fully booked… makes me wonder if the global economy slowdown and credit crisis we hear in the news so routinely is just a joke. **memo to self: find companies that profit from baby boomers other than ISRG… something related to hip replacement or diabetes. I joked w/ Sarah the other day that the distribution curve for age on board if severely skewed to the right and if you run a t-test or z-test for my age I’d fall outside of even two standard deviations (if you are unfamiliar with statistics lingo, 2 standard deviations, at least in a normal distribution bell curve includes roughly 95% of the entire population)
I’m quite possibly the worst target customer for cruises. It’s like dying of a slow death for me. The only difference between prison and this is that there’s a poker table on this ship. Even the internet on board is slow. I don’t do slow. There are very few exceptions, like dancing and kissing. I should’ve been a New Yorker, really. I cannot stand the pace these people are moving and there’s no way to pass them in the hallways b/c other than the fact it’s narrower than usually, these old people travel in groups. Now I know what the scene you see in movies or commercials where a flock of sheep walk out onto the highway while you’re driving your jeep around in Ireland feels like. I am really considering running around the ship and put those slow moving vehicle signs on people’s ass, you know, the ones they have for like farming vehicles traveling on the highways. It’s not just mind-numbingly slow. I can feel a lot of other body parts going numb… no wonder there’s a demand for Viagra.
Dow cracked the 8,000 resistance and I really want to trade. My worst fear is that it's going to crack during the two weeks I'm gone. At first it looked like it was going to hold. I have no idea what's going to happen. It looks like Asia is up overnight so who knows.
Friday, November 14, 2008
My Vacation
So I'm going on vacation this weekend for the rest of November. I hope nothing too significant happens while I'm gone. We've already tested the October low yesterday. I was afraid that's going to happen next week and possibly break and I'm going to miss out on the action. There's a G20 meeting which I don't think in the short run it'll be that significant but will have a longer term impact. Since I'm a bit obsessive about schedules, I'm trying to plan out what to do each day while researching the cities we're going and you get an idea of my route.
Saturday, 11/15 - flight to Barcelona, arrive late close to midnight I think. Maybe roam around the hotel, scout out food places.
11/16 ~ 18 - ship leaves at 7pm on the 18th. From what Oliver told me, the Olympic Hill is cool and Picaso Museum, Sagrada Familia, La Rambla and Park Guell (and other Gaudi architectures) are all good places to go.
11/19 - At sea
11/20 - Granada/Malaga. We're here almost 11 hrs. I don't know if we have enough time for both places but I'm leaning more towards Granada if I have to choose. Malaga I heard is cool b/c it's right on the ocean and it's the birth place of Picasso. People have told me that La Alhambra is a can't miss... it's like part fortress, part garden, and part garden.
11/21 - Casablanca. 9 hrs in Casablanca and Rabat. I think we can taken an overnight excursion to Marrakech. If this means we can skip Agadir I'm totally for it. Casablanca has the King Hassan Mosque and Rabat has the Kasbah of the Oudaias, Chellah, and Old Medina to see. If we get to go into Marrakech I'm going to try to go to Djemma El Fna, The Souks Market and Koutoubia Mosque.
11/22 - Agadir. From my research this is just a tourist resort. Disappointing...
11/23 - Arrecife/Lanzarote. Timanfaya Park, volcanic mountains and supposedly we can ride camels along the mountain side. I'm all over riding camels, man. But I feel sorry for the one that's having to carry my fat ass around.
11/24 - Las Palmas. 9 hrs here... I don't really care about this place. Beach and hiking? who knows.
11/25 - At sea
11/26 - Lisbon. We're here for about 9 hrs. Oliver told me to go to Monasterio de San Gerronimo and Torre de Belem. I think they're close together in this monument area but I could be wrong.
11/27 - Sevilla/Cadiz. We have almost 12 hrs at Cadiz and Sevilla. My impression is that Cadiz is not that interesting. If it's possible I'd like to go see a bull fight (Plaza de Toros de la Real Maestranza). I think someone told me this was along the river. The Cathedral of Seville, Real Alcazar, and the Jewish Quarter have all been mentioned as places to go and see.
11/28 - Gibraltar. 6 hours here more or less. Dolphin watching, St. Michael's cave and the Europa Point are all good options here I guess.
11/29 - Palma. We only have about 6 hrs or less again at Palmas, I think we can go to Castell de Bellver (some Muslim fortress with a good view of the bay) or the Pueblo Espanol (I think this is built like a small village with classical Spanish architectural work).
11/30 - dock back in Barcelona at 5am. Don't remember what time the departing flight is at the moment...
I'm excited about the food. I'm done w/ my diet and I lost about 12 lbs. Obviously it'd be stupid to gain it all back but I'm comfortable w/ indulging a little bit. I want to get some paella, tapas, gazpacho, kabobs, schwarma, falafael, some Moroccan tea, and just good sea food in general. I love the fact that they ran an episode of Bourdain's No Reservation on Monday when he went to Spain.
Saturday, 11/15 - flight to Barcelona, arrive late close to midnight I think. Maybe roam around the hotel, scout out food places.
11/16 ~ 18 - ship leaves at 7pm on the 18th. From what Oliver told me, the Olympic Hill is cool and Picaso Museum, Sagrada Familia, La Rambla and Park Guell (and other Gaudi architectures) are all good places to go.
11/19 - At sea
11/20 - Granada/Malaga. We're here almost 11 hrs. I don't know if we have enough time for both places but I'm leaning more towards Granada if I have to choose. Malaga I heard is cool b/c it's right on the ocean and it's the birth place of Picasso. People have told me that La Alhambra is a can't miss... it's like part fortress, part garden, and part garden.
11/21 - Casablanca. 9 hrs in Casablanca and Rabat. I think we can taken an overnight excursion to Marrakech. If this means we can skip Agadir I'm totally for it. Casablanca has the King Hassan Mosque and Rabat has the Kasbah of the Oudaias, Chellah, and Old Medina to see. If we get to go into Marrakech I'm going to try to go to Djemma El Fna, The Souks Market and Koutoubia Mosque.
11/22 - Agadir. From my research this is just a tourist resort. Disappointing...
11/23 - Arrecife/Lanzarote. Timanfaya Park, volcanic mountains and supposedly we can ride camels along the mountain side. I'm all over riding camels, man. But I feel sorry for the one that's having to carry my fat ass around.
11/24 - Las Palmas. 9 hrs here... I don't really care about this place. Beach and hiking? who knows.
11/25 - At sea
11/26 - Lisbon. We're here for about 9 hrs. Oliver told me to go to Monasterio de San Gerronimo and Torre de Belem. I think they're close together in this monument area but I could be wrong.
11/27 - Sevilla/Cadiz. We have almost 12 hrs at Cadiz and Sevilla. My impression is that Cadiz is not that interesting. If it's possible I'd like to go see a bull fight (Plaza de Toros de la Real Maestranza). I think someone told me this was along the river. The Cathedral of Seville, Real Alcazar, and the Jewish Quarter have all been mentioned as places to go and see.
11/28 - Gibraltar. 6 hours here more or less. Dolphin watching, St. Michael's cave and the Europa Point are all good options here I guess.
11/29 - Palma. We only have about 6 hrs or less again at Palmas, I think we can go to Castell de Bellver (some Muslim fortress with a good view of the bay) or the Pueblo Espanol (I think this is built like a small village with classical Spanish architectural work).
11/30 - dock back in Barcelona at 5am. Don't remember what time the departing flight is at the moment...
I'm excited about the food. I'm done w/ my diet and I lost about 12 lbs. Obviously it'd be stupid to gain it all back but I'm comfortable w/ indulging a little bit. I want to get some paella, tapas, gazpacho, kabobs, schwarma, falafael, some Moroccan tea, and just good sea food in general. I love the fact that they ran an episode of Bourdain's No Reservation on Monday when he went to Spain.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
My Weekend Review
So... I didn't beat my September. Disappointing... I actually got in a REIT and tried to hedge it with another except I got in a really bad price and too much size on the hedge. They ended up getting really out of wack and I lost a lotttt of money. Andy, our CEO, is back in Austin and he stopped by my desk to chat a little and see my progress.
I got my braces in on Monday. It didn't hurt as much as I thought it would at first. Toward the end of my appointment I asked Jeff, my orthodontist, if this is the part that's going to hurt and he joked that "yeah, this is the part where we probably have to hold you down for" except I didn't know he was joking... Can't you see that I'm very nervous here!? The pain didn't quite kick in until Thursday and Friday. Along with my diet the only thing I could eat was beans and this chicken chili I found.
Speaking of the diet, I've lost about 8 or 9 lbs after 3 weeks. I haven't worked out as much as I'd like because sometimes it feels like I need a longer recovery period than normal. I do have to say though that I'm doing better in my weekly volleyball games as well. If nothing else I feel better. I'm not huffing and puffing as much and I'm more agile. I might deviate from my workout plans when it comes to leg exercises. You're suppose to have 5 second contraction and 5 second extension for each rep and for leg exercises that puts a lot of pressure on my knees. The first week was a pain to get through. I'd feel hungry all the time but as soon as I start eating I'd lose my appetite. Not able to have milk really sucks.
The house is a done deal. Closed the house and got the keys on Tuesday. Unfortunately a lot of my energy is spend on the new place right now, more specifically deciding about what to keep from the old place and what to move and what I need to buy. There is a set of living room furniture that's been in the family for I'd say 20 years and my parents and I just can't really find a good spot for it in the new place at the same time we definitely don't want to throw it away. I just spent a good part of today debating with my parents whether I should keep my old bed or get a Tempur-Pedic one, if I should stay with full or queen size, how to position my bed, where to put the rest of the furniture. If it's my room I should get to make the decisions and if I'm willing to pay for a better mattress what's wrong with that?
This is my standpoint: there are things in a house that you SHOULD spend more money on and there are other parts that you can get by a lot cheaper. A good bed is a good investment. Meanwhile my parents want to spend about 10 times the amount of a Tempur-Pedic bed on just a marble breakfast table. I think that's ridiculous. To me that's like buying a piece of crap car and you end up spending a whole lot more on rims and speakers to pimp out your ride. I'm all about simple, elegance, comfort, and affordable. Of course, if you want all four you are going to do a bit of leg work. Judging by all the just butt fugly couches my dad has purchased over the years I am really hesitant on having my parents buy the furniture. Being a Libra, I'm bless with style. Us Libras we appreciate beauty and we know it when we see it. I firmly believe it's also a big reason why I'm so good at these Project Runway, Top Design, Top Chef betting games or whatever reality TV show Bravo has on b/c we know what is beautiful and fierce and what is fugly.
I got my braces in on Monday. It didn't hurt as much as I thought it would at first. Toward the end of my appointment I asked Jeff, my orthodontist, if this is the part that's going to hurt and he joked that "yeah, this is the part where we probably have to hold you down for" except I didn't know he was joking... Can't you see that I'm very nervous here!? The pain didn't quite kick in until Thursday and Friday. Along with my diet the only thing I could eat was beans and this chicken chili I found.
Speaking of the diet, I've lost about 8 or 9 lbs after 3 weeks. I haven't worked out as much as I'd like because sometimes it feels like I need a longer recovery period than normal. I do have to say though that I'm doing better in my weekly volleyball games as well. If nothing else I feel better. I'm not huffing and puffing as much and I'm more agile. I might deviate from my workout plans when it comes to leg exercises. You're suppose to have 5 second contraction and 5 second extension for each rep and for leg exercises that puts a lot of pressure on my knees. The first week was a pain to get through. I'd feel hungry all the time but as soon as I start eating I'd lose my appetite. Not able to have milk really sucks.
The house is a done deal. Closed the house and got the keys on Tuesday. Unfortunately a lot of my energy is spend on the new place right now, more specifically deciding about what to keep from the old place and what to move and what I need to buy. There is a set of living room furniture that's been in the family for I'd say 20 years and my parents and I just can't really find a good spot for it in the new place at the same time we definitely don't want to throw it away. I just spent a good part of today debating with my parents whether I should keep my old bed or get a Tempur-Pedic one, if I should stay with full or queen size, how to position my bed, where to put the rest of the furniture. If it's my room I should get to make the decisions and if I'm willing to pay for a better mattress what's wrong with that?
This is my standpoint: there are things in a house that you SHOULD spend more money on and there are other parts that you can get by a lot cheaper. A good bed is a good investment. Meanwhile my parents want to spend about 10 times the amount of a Tempur-Pedic bed on just a marble breakfast table. I think that's ridiculous. To me that's like buying a piece of crap car and you end up spending a whole lot more on rims and speakers to pimp out your ride. I'm all about simple, elegance, comfort, and affordable. Of course, if you want all four you are going to do a bit of leg work. Judging by all the just butt fugly couches my dad has purchased over the years I am really hesitant on having my parents buy the furniture. Being a Libra, I'm bless with style. Us Libras we appreciate beauty and we know it when we see it. I firmly believe it's also a big reason why I'm so good at these Project Runway, Top Design, Top Chef betting games or whatever reality TV show Bravo has on b/c we know what is beautiful and fierce and what is fugly.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
My End of Month Rally
Tomorrow is Halloween, it's also the end of the month, which I'm hoping lots of action happen because I'm trying to beat my September record.
Anyway, I noticed sometime around the middle of this month while I was trying to make some adjustments that it was within the realm of possibilities. I've been consistently having these smaller big up days compared to the few huge up days I had in September and I'm at a good pace to beat it. I had a pretty good day yesterday with the FOMC rate cut, which actually I have to say that for some reason I heard a 25 basis point cut so I went heavily short when it was in fact the expected 50 basis point. Whatever, I made quite a bit on that big dip after the announcement came out. After Wednesday it started to feel real that I actually beat my September record.
I had to make a decision earlier this week whether to miss Thursday or Friday to go to the Spanish Consulate in Houston to get my tourist visa for the cruise I'm not going on around Thanksgiving time. Thursday being the day after Fed announcement, could have lots of action. Friday is the end of the month... tough choice. Because of the fact that I'm only permanent resident status (my family's paper has been filed since 1997... seriously, don't ever try to tell me that gov't is efficient) it makes it a little difficult when traveling abroad. We have to obtain a visa, which is usually not a problem, it's just annoying that they make you jump through a lot of hoops. It's also almost comical when we return to the country they question us at customs why has it been taking so long. Gee, I was wondering if you could shed some light on that.
I drove all the way back from Houston this morning after I got done at the Spanish Consulate to try to make some money at the close. Unfortunately, I got into this UNT that came out with a huge sell imbalance, I'm talking about over 100% and I got some decent size. It started working but then it reversed on me. There was news about it being removed from one S&P index into the other (out of the 600 but into the 400 I think) but I felt comfortable with the huge imbalance. I gave it quite a bit of wiggle room and actually even added into it. Let's just say that I eventually covered it for a loss. I put some orders out up top at the close because of its ridiculous strong up move and he in fact did print up. I got out of about a third of my position but I ended up having to hold the rest over night. Let's hope that I get some help tomorrow. By my rough calculation I need a little over couple thousand dollars to beat my September. I think it's totally possible. Wish me luck!
I'm glad I didn't get too upset over the UNT trade. I mean, yeah, it sucks that I drove all the way back from Houston to lose money. But hey, we play the probabilities and it just didn't work out this time and I think I did let it work against a little too much.
On a side note, there was a little scare in our office risk management wise about a week ago so everybody has been more cautious. Unfortunately I've also been wanting to get my capital raised so I can send out more and bigger orders. Thankfully it's been approved and my buying power is being doubled tomorrow.
Anyway, I noticed sometime around the middle of this month while I was trying to make some adjustments that it was within the realm of possibilities. I've been consistently having these smaller big up days compared to the few huge up days I had in September and I'm at a good pace to beat it. I had a pretty good day yesterday with the FOMC rate cut, which actually I have to say that for some reason I heard a 25 basis point cut so I went heavily short when it was in fact the expected 50 basis point. Whatever, I made quite a bit on that big dip after the announcement came out. After Wednesday it started to feel real that I actually beat my September record.
I had to make a decision earlier this week whether to miss Thursday or Friday to go to the Spanish Consulate in Houston to get my tourist visa for the cruise I'm not going on around Thanksgiving time. Thursday being the day after Fed announcement, could have lots of action. Friday is the end of the month... tough choice. Because of the fact that I'm only permanent resident status (my family's paper has been filed since 1997... seriously, don't ever try to tell me that gov't is efficient) it makes it a little difficult when traveling abroad. We have to obtain a visa, which is usually not a problem, it's just annoying that they make you jump through a lot of hoops. It's also almost comical when we return to the country they question us at customs why has it been taking so long. Gee, I was wondering if you could shed some light on that.
I drove all the way back from Houston this morning after I got done at the Spanish Consulate to try to make some money at the close. Unfortunately, I got into this UNT that came out with a huge sell imbalance, I'm talking about over 100% and I got some decent size. It started working but then it reversed on me. There was news about it being removed from one S&P index into the other (out of the 600 but into the 400 I think) but I felt comfortable with the huge imbalance. I gave it quite a bit of wiggle room and actually even added into it. Let's just say that I eventually covered it for a loss. I put some orders out up top at the close because of its ridiculous strong up move and he in fact did print up. I got out of about a third of my position but I ended up having to hold the rest over night. Let's hope that I get some help tomorrow. By my rough calculation I need a little over couple thousand dollars to beat my September. I think it's totally possible. Wish me luck!
I'm glad I didn't get too upset over the UNT trade. I mean, yeah, it sucks that I drove all the way back from Houston to lose money. But hey, we play the probabilities and it just didn't work out this time and I think I did let it work against a little too much.
On a side note, there was a little scare in our office risk management wise about a week ago so everybody has been more cautious. Unfortunately I've also been wanting to get my capital raised so I can send out more and bigger orders. Thankfully it's been approved and my buying power is being doubled tomorrow.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
My Obama Rally
Michelle Obama that is.
Apparently Michelle was on Leno Tuesday night and they got to talking about wardrobe since there's this big brouhaha over Sarah Palin dropping couple hundred thousand dollars at Neiman Marcus. Michelle talks about how she got her yellow ensemble online at J. Crew and that actually generated a surge in online traffic for specifically what she was wearing. CNBC reported this this morning and we all thought it was funny since it did have a moderate strength. I shorted it a little bit just as a joke really. Well, 2:40 rolls around and imbalance orders came out and JCG had a strong buy imbalance. Seriously, WTF... JCG's previous close was 17.52 and it reached a high of 19.90. That's almost a 13.6% bounce.
I just find the whole thing a bit humorous.
Apparently Michelle was on Leno Tuesday night and they got to talking about wardrobe since there's this big brouhaha over Sarah Palin dropping couple hundred thousand dollars at Neiman Marcus. Michelle talks about how she got her yellow ensemble online at J. Crew and that actually generated a surge in online traffic for specifically what she was wearing. CNBC reported this this morning and we all thought it was funny since it did have a moderate strength. I shorted it a little bit just as a joke really. Well, 2:40 rolls around and imbalance orders came out and JCG had a strong buy imbalance. Seriously, WTF... JCG's previous close was 17.52 and it reached a high of 19.90. That's almost a 13.6% bounce.
I just find the whole thing a bit humorous.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
My Two-Million-Dollar Trade
Some stock was acting wacko today and I went out to put a ridiculous high offer and see what happens. I didn't think I would get filled and I knew if I get filled it was not going to stand. This particular stock trades around $40, $50 but when I got my short sell order filled I got filled at $10,000 for 200 shares, basically I made about $1,990,000. Yeah, obviously it's an erroneous trade and it got broken. You can see from my P&L chart for the day... the money I made today barely show up as a blip. Oh well, at least it was fun to see $2 million in my account.
My Metal Mouth
It's been in the talks for a while but I'm finally taking the steps to get braces. Yeah, I know most people get them while they're younger. What can I say? I don't like dentists or orthodontists. The first musical I've ever seen is Little Shop of Horror. Let's just say that the man-eating plant didn't help my young impression of the dental industry. The upper half of my teeth are really good, it's the bottom row that I'm worried about. My lower left canine is fighting space w/ the pre-molar and causing a cross bite.
My orthodontist is someone that my brother-in-law friends with from dental school. I'm just really concerned about the pain. I thought it might help me with my diet but I'm starting to think that I won't be able to eat anything at all the first few days after I get them. I had the separators in on Tuesday to prepare for next Monday's appointment. Yes, in three days I will have metal in my mouth for the next two years. So far I'm already having trouble chewing.
Somebody just tell me that everything is going to be ok.
My orthodontist is someone that my brother-in-law friends with from dental school. I'm just really concerned about the pain. I thought it might help me with my diet but I'm starting to think that I won't be able to eat anything at all the first few days after I get them. I had the separators in on Tuesday to prepare for next Monday's appointment. Yes, in three days I will have metal in my mouth for the next two years. So far I'm already having trouble chewing.
Somebody just tell me that everything is going to be ok.
Monday, October 20, 2008
My Diet
I'm on a diet/work out regimen. I purposely timed it so it would start after my birthday but ends before thanksgiving. Couple of other guys at work has tried it and each of them lost about 10-15 lbs within the one month period.
We saw this from Timothy Ferriss's blog, the author of the 4-Hour Work Week. You can read the details yourself, but roughly you're doing this for a month, with two 30-minute workouts each week and you don't eat any carbs, especially white carbs, or red meat for 6 days of the week. The work out is a little different, too. Instead of doing 3 sets of 10 like usual, you're doing one set to failure with a 5 seconds up, 5 seconds dow cadence. Basically you're lifting less than your normal load, go freakishingly slow and lift until you can't anymore.
I've been on it for a week now. It's really tough the first week. I found out that milk has a lot of carbs therefore it's banned from my diet which sucks b/c I love milk. It's also a problem since so much of Asian cuisine revolves around rice and noodle. So far there hasn't been a dramatic difference yet. I've only dropped about 3-4 lbs and that could be just water weight. However, I do feel fitter and things are looser---like my pants and watch (yipee, I'm losing the stubborn wrist fat that I've always wanted to lose).
There was a young alumni happy hour last week and I've already planned to have my off day on Friday so it was excruciating for me to just sip on a glass of wine and pass on the free cookies they had at the events. Of course my friends would wolf down the cookies right in front of me to tease me, but somehow I made through it.
We saw this from Timothy Ferriss's blog, the author of the 4-Hour Work Week. You can read the details yourself, but roughly you're doing this for a month, with two 30-minute workouts each week and you don't eat any carbs, especially white carbs, or red meat for 6 days of the week. The work out is a little different, too. Instead of doing 3 sets of 10 like usual, you're doing one set to failure with a 5 seconds up, 5 seconds dow cadence. Basically you're lifting less than your normal load, go freakishingly slow and lift until you can't anymore.
I've been on it for a week now. It's really tough the first week. I found out that milk has a lot of carbs therefore it's banned from my diet which sucks b/c I love milk. It's also a problem since so much of Asian cuisine revolves around rice and noodle. So far there hasn't been a dramatic difference yet. I've only dropped about 3-4 lbs and that could be just water weight. However, I do feel fitter and things are looser---like my pants and watch (yipee, I'm losing the stubborn wrist fat that I've always wanted to lose).
There was a young alumni happy hour last week and I've already planned to have my off day on Friday so it was excruciating for me to just sip on a glass of wine and pass on the free cookies they had at the events. Of course my friends would wolf down the cookies right in front of me to tease me, but somehow I made through it.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
My Giant Douche and Turd Sandwich
Some people have said that I watch too much The Daily Show... some straight out call me a cynic. You know what? They're right.
I try to stay away from political talks and what not b/c it just annoys me. Nobody really gives a damn what the other side thinks. All they're hearing is how the other side disagrees with them and all they're thinking in their head is how they're going to poke holes in their arguments or how to rip their opponents a new one with some trivial statistic. I don't want to impose my political views on anyone. If this post bores you or upsets you, feel free to stop reading anytime.
I still remember this episode of South Park from the 2004 election. It was called "Douche and Turd." I don't watch South Park that often. I do think it's funny and they hit it right on the mark when the episode is some kind of social satire like the Douche and Turd episode. It's a lot like The Simpson in a way. It's just gross and crude sometimes and I don't necessary like the means they try to achieve comedy all the time. This episode aired in late October in 2004, just right before the election.
The main plot is that PETA is protesting the South Park Elementary School's usage of cow as its mascot so to appease PETA the school is voting between a Giant Douche or a Turd Sandwich for its new mascot. Dividing opinions form; conflicts ensue. Stan, one of the main characters didn't see the point of voting between the two joke candidates and there's a whole bunch of other stuff that happens in that episode including an appearance by P.Diddy and his Vote or Die campaign. At the end of the episode, Stan's dad tells Stan at the dinner table that all votes matter even if it's for a losing cause, because "you see, it's always going to be between a giant douche and a turd sandwich."
That's kind of how I feel. It's easy to be cynical. Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.
In case you feel I have the wrong attitude, I have to let you know about my experience with politics growing up. This is not to justify my attitude (b/c I don't feel I'm wrong in the first place); this is just so you can gain some understanding, which is what we should all do regardless in politics or not. Growing up in Taiwan, I have seen plenty of bribery that went on to get business deals done, straight up buying votes, and just simply a joke of a government. I have seen friends of my dad throwing dinner parties and make under the table deals in order to secure votes. In the US, it exist as well, just not in such obvious forms. I just simply cannot trust the people in power are making decisions with OUR best interest in mind. It wasn't that George Bush doesn't care about black people. George Bush doesn't care period. Barbara Bush and 90% of Republicans in Washington is surprise to find that we still have poor people in America when Katrina hit. "I thought we got rid of them when Reagan was in office."
It's just all a big joke to me now. I remember when I believe in all this "democratic process." In high school I believed people could make a difference and I got involved in Student Council but I quickly saw that there's no such thing as leadership in that organization. Everybody was just using that to pad their college application. Every year we fight to be able to have lunches off campus, at least maybe for the senior or freshman and each year the administrators shut us down. Eventually we quit trying and just go on eating our cookies during StuCo meetings.
My freshman year in college I got involved w/ Student Government again. I thought this was going to be different. This is college. People care and there are real issues to take care of. Well, I was half right. There are real issues but instead they waste 3 hours each Tuesday night in the SSG building promoting and debating agendas of no real interest to us students. It's still a popularity contest. Which tickets has more cool people from different greek organizations ends up sweeping the votes. Each year we want lower tuition and more benefits for the students and each year administrators shut us down. Eventually we quit trying and go on fighting about things that look like we're making a difference, like the Cesar Chavez statue. Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not some anti-Cesar Chavez asshole or I don't think he deserves a statue. Each student ended up contributing I believe $2 out of their student fees to build that statue and did it provide a better student life for us? I guess you could make the argument that now you walk by the West Mall you feel slightly more inspired instead of the urge of going up the Main Tower and sniper-rifle all the people that are trying to hand you a flyer.
Now that in the real government, I'm inclined to have the same feeling I did in high school and college. I've been to Young Democrats AND Young Republicans meetings. Quite honestly, they're both just about equally clueless. The last time I engaged in an actual talk about politics with a friend he said he was voting for McCain and I probed "Why?" "No reason; mostly because I can't stand Obama." Again, I'm not here to impose my view on who I think is the better candidate or fit to lead our country. I just feel like in this YouTube/MTV era it's not about leadership or the policies anymore. It's just all about who's cool or funny. Whatever happen to leaders like FDR and Lincoln? It seems like starting with Nixon we just have these likable guys with questionable leadership skills, or as I'd like to call it, Ron Paul clones (I do have some reservations about putting Reagan in this category though). You can even make arguments against JFK and LBJ. I blame this on the invention of television :-P
I guess the next time someone says to me "how can you be so cynical" I have to respond "how can you be so naive." I don't know what to do from now on. I'm trying to remember how I coped when I found out Santa wasn't real and use that same methodology.
I try to stay away from political talks and what not b/c it just annoys me. Nobody really gives a damn what the other side thinks. All they're hearing is how the other side disagrees with them and all they're thinking in their head is how they're going to poke holes in their arguments or how to rip their opponents a new one with some trivial statistic. I don't want to impose my political views on anyone. If this post bores you or upsets you, feel free to stop reading anytime.
I still remember this episode of South Park from the 2004 election. It was called "Douche and Turd." I don't watch South Park that often. I do think it's funny and they hit it right on the mark when the episode is some kind of social satire like the Douche and Turd episode. It's a lot like The Simpson in a way. It's just gross and crude sometimes and I don't necessary like the means they try to achieve comedy all the time. This episode aired in late October in 2004, just right before the election.
The main plot is that PETA is protesting the South Park Elementary School's usage of cow as its mascot so to appease PETA the school is voting between a Giant Douche or a Turd Sandwich for its new mascot. Dividing opinions form; conflicts ensue. Stan, one of the main characters didn't see the point of voting between the two joke candidates and there's a whole bunch of other stuff that happens in that episode including an appearance by P.Diddy and his Vote or Die campaign. At the end of the episode, Stan's dad tells Stan at the dinner table that all votes matter even if it's for a losing cause, because "you see, it's always going to be between a giant douche and a turd sandwich."
That's kind of how I feel. It's easy to be cynical. Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.
In case you feel I have the wrong attitude, I have to let you know about my experience with politics growing up. This is not to justify my attitude (b/c I don't feel I'm wrong in the first place); this is just so you can gain some understanding, which is what we should all do regardless in politics or not. Growing up in Taiwan, I have seen plenty of bribery that went on to get business deals done, straight up buying votes, and just simply a joke of a government. I have seen friends of my dad throwing dinner parties and make under the table deals in order to secure votes. In the US, it exist as well, just not in such obvious forms. I just simply cannot trust the people in power are making decisions with OUR best interest in mind. It wasn't that George Bush doesn't care about black people. George Bush doesn't care period. Barbara Bush and 90% of Republicans in Washington is surprise to find that we still have poor people in America when Katrina hit. "I thought we got rid of them when Reagan was in office."
It's just all a big joke to me now. I remember when I believe in all this "democratic process." In high school I believed people could make a difference and I got involved in Student Council but I quickly saw that there's no such thing as leadership in that organization. Everybody was just using that to pad their college application. Every year we fight to be able to have lunches off campus, at least maybe for the senior or freshman and each year the administrators shut us down. Eventually we quit trying and just go on eating our cookies during StuCo meetings.
My freshman year in college I got involved w/ Student Government again. I thought this was going to be different. This is college. People care and there are real issues to take care of. Well, I was half right. There are real issues but instead they waste 3 hours each Tuesday night in the SSG building promoting and debating agendas of no real interest to us students. It's still a popularity contest. Which tickets has more cool people from different greek organizations ends up sweeping the votes. Each year we want lower tuition and more benefits for the students and each year administrators shut us down. Eventually we quit trying and go on fighting about things that look like we're making a difference, like the Cesar Chavez statue. Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not some anti-Cesar Chavez asshole or I don't think he deserves a statue. Each student ended up contributing I believe $2 out of their student fees to build that statue and did it provide a better student life for us? I guess you could make the argument that now you walk by the West Mall you feel slightly more inspired instead of the urge of going up the Main Tower and sniper-rifle all the people that are trying to hand you a flyer.
Now that in the real government, I'm inclined to have the same feeling I did in high school and college. I've been to Young Democrats AND Young Republicans meetings. Quite honestly, they're both just about equally clueless. The last time I engaged in an actual talk about politics with a friend he said he was voting for McCain and I probed "Why?" "No reason; mostly because I can't stand Obama." Again, I'm not here to impose my view on who I think is the better candidate or fit to lead our country. I just feel like in this YouTube/MTV era it's not about leadership or the policies anymore. It's just all about who's cool or funny. Whatever happen to leaders like FDR and Lincoln? It seems like starting with Nixon we just have these likable guys with questionable leadership skills, or as I'd like to call it, Ron Paul clones (I do have some reservations about putting Reagan in this category though). You can even make arguments against JFK and LBJ. I blame this on the invention of television :-P
I guess the next time someone says to me "how can you be so cynical" I have to respond "how can you be so naive." I don't know what to do from now on. I'm trying to remember how I coped when I found out Santa wasn't real and use that same methodology.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
My "What's Next?"
I'm at a place right now where I'm showing pretty good consistency and it's not rare for me to show up in the company's top performer report. Although, the market has been active and it's been good for us the past month and a half or so. I'm a little concerned regarding how I'm going to hit my numbers when a slow month comes along. I know still have the tendency to churn a little bit and that's what I need to work on. Jane, my coach, and our Managing Director have all said that my P&L will be a lot higher than before even if a slow month does come. Theoretically I am making better decisions and managing my size better as well.
So what's next? I definitely want to become an HP trader and take on students myself but that seems to be further out in the time line. Jason, my MD (managing director), thought I was impatient. It's really just that I don't know what to shoot for now. I'm happy with the check I'm getting but I want to get to the next level. From my conversation with Jason yesterday, here's what I think I can to grow even more:
As I went along I think people found out about it somehow. I know someone posted the link to my blog in a discussion board out there. The guy that sits next me that started in March moved from San Francisco area read my blog before he took the offer. It makes me wonder how many new traders have read my blog and if that actually had any influence on their decision. If it does than I'm missing out some serious referral checks. Let me just say that this is not a recruiting tool for Kershner. HR and management has no control on what I say on here and whatever ends up here is just my personal opinion, not that of Kershner Trading. I've been thinking about posting more stuff about trading and technical stuff, but I decided against that. There's plenty of other blogs out there that do a good job providing market commentary and technical analysis. I'll update my links sections the ones I read regularly in my Google Reader. I'll just post on the trades that worked out really well or disastrous for me. I'm going to lean more on the personal style. This is blog is for me to read and review in the future like I said and any other friends or family that want to know what I'm up to, mixed in with a few funny posts and what not.
So what's next? I definitely want to become an HP trader and take on students myself but that seems to be further out in the time line. Jason, my MD (managing director), thought I was impatient. It's really just that I don't know what to shoot for now. I'm happy with the check I'm getting but I want to get to the next level. From my conversation with Jason yesterday, here's what I think I can to grow even more:
- Take bigger size when it's appropriate and stretch myself a little bit maybe once or twice a week where I'm a little nervous or uncomfortable with the size I'm in.
- Analyze strengths and weakness--there's no need to be good at everything is what Jason told me, which is completely the opposite of my inherent personality. I'm like Skylar from Heroes. I have this hunger of wanting everybody's powers. X Trader is good trading off of IBD data? I want that. Y trader is the best pre-market traders? Great, I need to get his power, too. There are also plays revolving around high dollar stocks, penny stocks, and pair trades.
- I'm doing great right at the close or post market. Take more shares and for the iShares that I play, know exactly what I need to hedge it with if it looks like I can't get out.
- I have some trouble in the middle of the day (much like the rest of the company); dial back the shares and more selective with trades after 10:30am. I think also a lot of times I should be playing the reversals when a stock is up or down huge but being the momentum trader that I am I go short those bounces or long the retracement. Those happen a little earlier than 10:30 though. The other stuff is probably just churning. (all time in CST)
- Wednesday is just terrible for me relative to other days for some reason... It used to be I would get burned sometimes when oil numbers came out but not anymore. Still, I'm not doing as well on Wednesdays compared to the rest of the week. It could be a lack of focus in mid week or that I just have some predisposed belief that I suck on Wednesdays.
- I'm sucking it up on certain oil stocks like PBR and HK... and the banking ETFs and stocks I'm not doing too well either. Adjustment is needed or don't trade it at all.
- I'm doing well with EWZ. EEM and FXI kind of sucked after the split. Jason recommends that I find another ETF that I can hone in and trade well.
- I have pretty high winning percentage, about 60%, but my risk reward could be better, aka stretching out my winners and cutting the losers quicker, and I'd like my duration to be longer as well. I do believe though that if I've establish a trading style that works for me I don't need to do any heavy adjusting. Why try to be someone I am not, right?
As I went along I think people found out about it somehow. I know someone posted the link to my blog in a discussion board out there. The guy that sits next me that started in March moved from San Francisco area read my blog before he took the offer. It makes me wonder how many new traders have read my blog and if that actually had any influence on their decision. If it does than I'm missing out some serious referral checks. Let me just say that this is not a recruiting tool for Kershner. HR and management has no control on what I say on here and whatever ends up here is just my personal opinion, not that of Kershner Trading. I've been thinking about posting more stuff about trading and technical stuff, but I decided against that. There's plenty of other blogs out there that do a good job providing market commentary and technical analysis. I'll update my links sections the ones I read regularly in my Google Reader. I'll just post on the trades that worked out really well or disastrous for me. I'm going to lean more on the personal style. This is blog is for me to read and review in the future like I said and any other friends or family that want to know what I'm up to, mixed in with a few funny posts and what not.
Monday, October 13, 2008
My "That's What She Said"
I came across this today at work. It's sad to see that they still give out detentions for stupid reasons in high school.
There was one time where somebody on my team was long a stock and he said "get up you dick!" over our conference call on Skype. That was a very nice "that's what she said" moment.
There was one time where somebody on my team was long a stock and he said "get up you dick!" over our conference call on Skype. That was a very nice "that's what she said" moment.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
My Relax
In the spirit of keeping things light and perhaps help you (and me) forget about all this dooms day, end-of-the-world, Armageddon talk b/c the stock market is getting out of hand once again, I'm posting these humor pics that I came across either in my RSS feed or people from work sent me. I particularly like the Halloween one since it's coming up soon.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
My Pair Trades
I'm trying out some pair trades on Facebook. The idea is to long the strong ones in the industry and short the weaker ones or I was going to pair trade it off of the ETF, so say short the ETF but long the leaders that ETF holds or long the ETF but short the weaker ones.
I'm trying out the OIH, XOP, MOO, EWZ, PPH, or a combination of stocks in those ETFs... and I do want to try out the financials like KBE and UYG but with the short ban (which ends tonight) it's a little harder to gauge. I want to find things that are close in value or exactly half or a third to judge how many shares to take
I already longed 60,000 shares of MON and shorted 30,000 shares of AGU and MOS since those two's value is roughly half of MON. I will probably put on 50,000 shares of POT long with 33,500 shares of AGU and MOS short each when the market is slow MOS and AGU has a combined price of roughly 33% less than of POT so I'm shorting 33% more shares to match. I don't know if exactly that math makes sense when it's translated into dollar figures but since it's all an experiment I don't really care. In addition, I'm going to put on 45,000 shares OIH short and split my longs among RIG, SLB, and DO. The combined value of those threes is about twice the value of OIH so I'm probably going to do 7,500 shares each for 22,500 shares or half of the number of OIH shares I'm going to put on. For EWZ the max it'll let me short on facebook is 13,350 shares so I'm going to match that by longing 17,800 shares of PBR. PPH I can only short about 37,000 shares so I'll then split that in half and long 18,500 shares of JNJ and ABT.
It kind of makes sense to me with the numbers and the shares and all that in my but I'm not sure and if it's that easy I'm sure everybody out there would be doing it. Supposedly other people who do these kind of trades have some complicated algorithm, etc etc... woooo, wouldn't it be funny if I just crack it right now?
I'm at a point when I'm satisfied with my trading system and I want to continue to expand my repertoire. I have faith in the way that I trade that I'm going to consistently make money.
I'm trying out the OIH, XOP, MOO, EWZ, PPH, or a combination of stocks in those ETFs... and I do want to try out the financials like KBE and UYG but with the short ban (which ends tonight) it's a little harder to gauge. I want to find things that are close in value or exactly half or a third to judge how many shares to take
I already longed 60,000 shares of MON and shorted 30,000 shares of AGU and MOS since those two's value is roughly half of MON. I will probably put on 50,000 shares of POT long with 33,500 shares of AGU and MOS short each when the market is slow MOS and AGU has a combined price of roughly 33% less than of POT so I'm shorting 33% more shares to match. I don't know if exactly that math makes sense when it's translated into dollar figures but since it's all an experiment I don't really care. In addition, I'm going to put on 45,000 shares OIH short and split my longs among RIG, SLB, and DO. The combined value of those threes is about twice the value of OIH so I'm probably going to do 7,500 shares each for 22,500 shares or half of the number of OIH shares I'm going to put on. For EWZ the max it'll let me short on facebook is 13,350 shares so I'm going to match that by longing 17,800 shares of PBR. PPH I can only short about 37,000 shares so I'll then split that in half and long 18,500 shares of JNJ and ABT.
It kind of makes sense to me with the numbers and the shares and all that in my but I'm not sure and if it's that easy I'm sure everybody out there would be doing it. Supposedly other people who do these kind of trades have some complicated algorithm, etc etc... woooo, wouldn't it be funny if I just crack it right now?
I'm at a point when I'm satisfied with my trading system and I want to continue to expand my repertoire. I have faith in the way that I trade that I'm going to consistently make money.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
My Failed Rally
It looks like we're still heading lower. It looked good in the morning but mid day, coincidentally (or maybe as V would say, only the mere illusion of coincidence) when Bernanke came on CNBC and the FOMC minute were about to come out we started making lower highs down trend again. In fact, we even took out the lows made on Monday. I'm going to continue to look for confirmations in the price action and volume. The short ban ends on midnight Wednesday so Thursday should be very interesting. With the financial shorts back in play... there's just no point in trying to play the long side right now. I hope to see that bottom confirmation sometime within the next 5-10 days. If this doesn't hold up... next stop: Dows 8800 or 7700ish range.
I got short some shares at the close but I didn't get the ideal price that I wanted and I panicked. I covered for a bigger loss than I'd like. I really wasn't thinking clearly at that point with everything going on at the close. It was stupid really. I should've at least just hedge it with something. I had absolutely no idea how we might open the next day at that moment... so I just took the loss. Now that seeing Asian getting beat up I'm pretty sure I could've made a least a couple thousand dollars right at the open tomorrow. I still finished up the day, quite significantly. Sometimes I feel as if I want to lose money. You might think: that's crazy! Why would you want to lose money? It's actually quite common. It's a psychological thing. Some traders do very well and go on a streak but a part of them don't believe they deserve this money. It's like a form of cognitive dissonance and they adjust by subconsciously taking some losses.
My parents are back in Austin again. The suspcious Jason believe he makes a lot more money when his parents are out of the 512 area code and doesn't like Wednesday. Just so happens tomorrow is Wednesday as well. Whoopi! Let's just be careful and not let this get to my head.
I'm trying to think of some fundamental plays again. With oil and other commodity prices down sharply, I was thinking of longing stuff like airlines, transport, and food companies. Unfortunately if we do have a global slowdown that's going to take the transport stocks down with it. Airlines... we'll see. It's hard to get on board (no pun intended) with such a crappy industry but once we've bottomed out this might be the first group that I look to.
I got short some shares at the close but I didn't get the ideal price that I wanted and I panicked. I covered for a bigger loss than I'd like. I really wasn't thinking clearly at that point with everything going on at the close. It was stupid really. I should've at least just hedge it with something. I had absolutely no idea how we might open the next day at that moment... so I just took the loss. Now that seeing Asian getting beat up I'm pretty sure I could've made a least a couple thousand dollars right at the open tomorrow. I still finished up the day, quite significantly. Sometimes I feel as if I want to lose money. You might think: that's crazy! Why would you want to lose money? It's actually quite common. It's a psychological thing. Some traders do very well and go on a streak but a part of them don't believe they deserve this money. It's like a form of cognitive dissonance and they adjust by subconsciously taking some losses.
My parents are back in Austin again. The suspcious Jason believe he makes a lot more money when his parents are out of the 512 area code and doesn't like Wednesday. Just so happens tomorrow is Wednesday as well. Whoopi! Let's just be careful and not let this get to my head.
I'm trying to think of some fundamental plays again. With oil and other commodity prices down sharply, I was thinking of longing stuff like airlines, transport, and food companies. Unfortunately if we do have a global slowdown that's going to take the transport stocks down with it. Airlines... we'll see. It's hard to get on board (no pun intended) with such a crappy industry but once we've bottomed out this might be the first group that I look to.
Monday, October 6, 2008
My Bottom?
I think we've bottomed.
*gasp*
I really don't like to call tops or bottoms. People come on TV and call bottom all the time. But they're getting paid to say what they think. I don't. I'm just blogging about what's going on with me and what's going through this tiny head of mine. Of course, when you call top or bottom, you're sticking your neck out and from time to time you're going to be wrong. I mean, my god, Jim Cramer called the bottom back when SPY was trading at like 126, 127 I think (SPY closed around 105 today). And I understood why he would call the bottom right there. I remember that day there were negative news about MER or MS (I always get them mixed up a little bit), but the market seems to just brush it off completely, which you could interpret as that the market has already priced in all the bad news.
BAC just announced they're going to cut dividends so I think we might gap down again tomorrow depending on how Asia and Europe do. We also have the FOMC minutes coming out at 1pm CST. Lots have changed since the last Fed meeting. I think people are going to read into it whether there's a chance of a rate cut coming up in three weeks. VIX is way up at 58. There's panic and I think we've finally flushed all the weak hands out. I lost a lot of money in the middle of the day churning away. It just seemed like the buyers and sellers had come to a stand still and the market wasn't making any real moves and I was getting stopped out of my longs and shorts left and right. I would be looking to buy some stocks around 9:30, 10:00 CST with some slightly wider stop placed.
We're going to weed out the weak and after the smoke clear, I think we'll be surprised how strong WFC is.
*gasp*
I really don't like to call tops or bottoms. People come on TV and call bottom all the time. But they're getting paid to say what they think. I don't. I'm just blogging about what's going on with me and what's going through this tiny head of mine. Of course, when you call top or bottom, you're sticking your neck out and from time to time you're going to be wrong. I mean, my god, Jim Cramer called the bottom back when SPY was trading at like 126, 127 I think (SPY closed around 105 today). And I understood why he would call the bottom right there. I remember that day there were negative news about MER or MS (I always get them mixed up a little bit), but the market seems to just brush it off completely, which you could interpret as that the market has already priced in all the bad news.
BAC just announced they're going to cut dividends so I think we might gap down again tomorrow depending on how Asia and Europe do. We also have the FOMC minutes coming out at 1pm CST. Lots have changed since the last Fed meeting. I think people are going to read into it whether there's a chance of a rate cut coming up in three weeks. VIX is way up at 58. There's panic and I think we've finally flushed all the weak hands out. I lost a lot of money in the middle of the day churning away. It just seemed like the buyers and sellers had come to a stand still and the market wasn't making any real moves and I was getting stopped out of my longs and shorts left and right. I would be looking to buy some stocks around 9:30, 10:00 CST with some slightly wider stop placed.
We're going to weed out the weak and after the smoke clear, I think we'll be surprised how strong WFC is.
Friday, October 3, 2008
My New Trades
So I was talking to another trader on the floor yesterday about pair trades. I know he does a lot of that and I've been pretty fascinated by the idea. I've been looking for some trade ideas to automate for a while. The thing with pair trade though is that what I was thinking about is the opposite of what Brian or conventional play which is to play for the divergence to converge back. I was thinking that certain days EWZ looks a lot stronger/weaker compared to SPY, but I was also just looking at the dollar amount whereas most pair traders look at percentages.
There's still a lot of homework I need to do on this. There are traders that base trades off of complicated algorithm. How do I find the pairs? How do I establish what's the norm for them and what would trigger the trade? Should I look at the change in dollar amount or percentage? Do I take a different amount of shares for the long/short? Should I trade in the direction of the divergence or trade for them to converge? If it's not working, how much room do I give it or willing to lose? If it's working for me, what's my exit strategy in that case as well?
So far I only have the LVS-MGM and SPWRA-SPWRB pair that I'm trying out. If you know any other pairs that's been working for you, let me know.
There's still a lot of homework I need to do on this. There are traders that base trades off of complicated algorithm. How do I find the pairs? How do I establish what's the norm for them and what would trigger the trade? Should I look at the change in dollar amount or percentage? Do I take a different amount of shares for the long/short? Should I trade in the direction of the divergence or trade for them to converge? If it's not working, how much room do I give it or willing to lose? If it's working for me, what's my exit strategy in that case as well?
So far I only have the LVS-MGM and SPWRA-SPWRB pair that I'm trying out. If you know any other pairs that's been working for you, let me know.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
My Retirment Plan
Where am I putting my money? For my retirement I'm actually following the Good to Great Index or method. Good to great is a book by Jim Collins that talks about companies that are able to consistently perform and adjust to make the company Built to Last.
The Good to Great companies
- Abbot Laboratories (ABT)
- Circuit City (CC)
- Fannie Mae (FNM)
- Gillette (got bought out by Proctor I think)
- Kimberly-Clark (KMB)
- Kroger (KR)
- Nucor (NUE)
- Philip Morrs/Altria (PM/MO)
- Pitney Bowes (PBI)
- Walgreen (WAG)
- Wells Fargo (WFC)
The Built to Last companies:
- 3M (MMM)
- American Express (AXP)
- Boeing (BA)
- Citygroup (C)
- Disney (DIS)
- Ford (F)
- General Electric (GE)
- Hewlett Packard (HPQ)
- IBM (IBM)
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
- Marriott (MAR)
- Merck (MRK)
- Motorola (MOT)
- Nordstrom (JWN)
- Phillip Morris/Altria (PM/MO)
- Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- Sony (SNE)
- Wal*Mart (WMT)
There are some real crap on this list though... FNM is not worth crap now, MOT is crap, CC is double crap, F is crap to the 5th power. If you look at the chart for ALLLL the way back, and I mean back in like the 80's or even further, the ones that actually do have an uptrend I like are (wth the current dividend % following) : ABT (2.44%), KMB (3.54%), KR (1.30%), PM (4.40%), MO (6.37%), WFC (3.87%), MMM (3.05%), JNJ (2.71%), PG (2.24%).
Some of the companies I really like as well like BA and IBM and some technically do have an uptrend but I didn't include them b/c the slope of the trend is not as great or almost flat or there's a lot more volatility than I'd like. So seriously, if you are putting in money into your 401(k), IRA or whatever retirement/pension fund you have like SEP or VUL... just go w/ these companies. Personally I'm even more selective. I'm down to just PM, MO, WFC, JNJ, KMB, and PG. Six companies... well, it used to be 5 before the PM/MO spin off. I simply just buy these shares no matter what price they are and I reinvest the dividends. I don't care if they go up or down. Will this work? Let's see... I'm almost 25 now, I'll let you know in 40 years. So let's talk again in 2048.
My Little Blow Up
Today was suppose to be a great day. It looked like I was going to be in the company's top performer's list for the 5th straight day, but then in the afternoon I took two small hits. Instead of lightening up my shares or stop trading for a while I still went at it full steam ahead and this time I held my loser for much more room than I'd normally give it. I lost my day's profit and then some. I really haven't had a blow up like this lately, even if it's a small one. I just kind of lost my head... sigh...
The House is going to vote on the new bail out bill. Look, I understand why people feel that this bill should not be passed. Yes, this is the creation of Wall Street greed. No, we should not be in this situation. Judging from the stuff I read and watch, it feels like most everybody do not want this bill to be passed b/c the average joes should not have to pay for the sins of the greed of evil corporations. Meanwhile, people that are in the financial industry believe this bill needs to be passed. Whenever you see a fund manager or whoever they have on CNBC they all say that the bail out needs to be passed, but when you interview the John Smiths from Iowa City, Iowa or wherever that's way the hell away from New York City they are all against the bill.
What do I think? I quite frankly don't know what to think anymore. I believe the Congress should do something. That something was better regulation and accounting standards a LOOONNG time ago. I mean, c'mon, did we learn nothing from the savings & loan crisis in the 80's? Now that we're here, what do we do? I don't have the answer. Believe it or not, Congress doesn't quite have the answer. I mean no offense but no Congressman or Congresswoman fully understands the illiquid financial instruments that we're dealing with here. Not McCain, not Obama, not Pelosi. Hank Paulson has a plan but he sure didn't do a good job explaining and selling the plan. I don't want to place blame and point fingers. All I really hoping is that Congress is doing the right thing instead of simply politicking b/c we have an election coming, voting with personal or the party's agenda.
Hey, take the whole anger and greed thing out... if something is not done, seriously, it's going to affect all of us. Yes, even you who stuff money under your mattress. Without a healthy credit market business is not going to be able to function properly and the economy goes down the crapper, which translate into weaker dollar so even if you don't have any stocks, 401(k), pension plan of any kind and stuff your money under the mattress that money is going to be worth less. I fear for you, for me, for the people.
The House is going to vote on the new bail out bill. Look, I understand why people feel that this bill should not be passed. Yes, this is the creation of Wall Street greed. No, we should not be in this situation. Judging from the stuff I read and watch, it feels like most everybody do not want this bill to be passed b/c the average joes should not have to pay for the sins of the greed of evil corporations. Meanwhile, people that are in the financial industry believe this bill needs to be passed. Whenever you see a fund manager or whoever they have on CNBC they all say that the bail out needs to be passed, but when you interview the John Smiths from Iowa City, Iowa or wherever that's way the hell away from New York City they are all against the bill.
What do I think? I quite frankly don't know what to think anymore. I believe the Congress should do something. That something was better regulation and accounting standards a LOOONNG time ago. I mean, c'mon, did we learn nothing from the savings & loan crisis in the 80's? Now that we're here, what do we do? I don't have the answer. Believe it or not, Congress doesn't quite have the answer. I mean no offense but no Congressman or Congresswoman fully understands the illiquid financial instruments that we're dealing with here. Not McCain, not Obama, not Pelosi. Hank Paulson has a plan but he sure didn't do a good job explaining and selling the plan. I don't want to place blame and point fingers. All I really hoping is that Congress is doing the right thing instead of simply politicking b/c we have an election coming, voting with personal or the party's agenda.
Hey, take the whole anger and greed thing out... if something is not done, seriously, it's going to affect all of us. Yes, even you who stuff money under your mattress. Without a healthy credit market business is not going to be able to function properly and the economy goes down the crapper, which translate into weaker dollar so even if you don't have any stocks, 401(k), pension plan of any kind and stuff your money under the mattress that money is going to be worth less. I fear for you, for me, for the people.
Monday, September 29, 2008
My Little Dutch Boy
Well, that was interesting... futures broke the morning support and we got a big flush down. Yours truly just loaded up on some EWZ short. The rest of the day was pretty boring since everybody was waiting for the voting in the House to go on. We got C-SPAN on half of the TVs instead of CNBC (CNBC is pretty crappy sometimes, and this was one of those times). The speeches before the voting... honestly, not inspiring and I don't think they helped the cause at all. It started out as more ayes than nays but you can kind of see the nays start creeping up. Right before the nays caught up to the ayes I loaded up on EWZ again. It was a pretty good entry since futures was holding a steady ceiling and I wasn't really risking that much if the votes start to swing back the other direction. Sure enough, the nays overtook the yays and people can tell that this bill is not getting passed and it was just like the little Dutch boy pulling his finger out and we get a complete flood gate. I got some really nice prints at the close as well even though I should've done a lot better still with some of the imbalances, etc.
I'll admit that government or civics is not my favorite subjects in school, but I did learn something today. We didn't really know or remember how many members are in the House of Representatives but our pod quickly found out it was 435 so the magic number was 218 if this thing was going to get passed. I thought of a video that I'm sure we all watched when we were younger, so here it is....
I'll admit that government or civics is not my favorite subjects in school, but I did learn something today. We didn't really know or remember how many members are in the House of Representatives but our pod quickly found out it was 435 so the magic number was 218 if this thing was going to get passed. I thought of a video that I'm sure we all watched when we were younger, so here it is....
Monday, September 22, 2008
My Expensive Nap
I overslept on Friday... big mistake. There were some pretty simple set ups and I know I would've made at least a quick $10,000. I went to play sand volleyball w/ James until about 9, 9:30pm and went to bed about 10pm but my sister and my brother in law was in town b/c of the whole Hurricane Ike mess and they woke me up about midnight. I had trouble falling asleep until about 3am since I was naturally excited about the next day.
I knew I should at least came in and I managed to bang out what used to be a pretty good day for me, plus I knew we were going to have an office wide happy hour after the close if we finish the week w/ no down days as a firm overall. In fact, our firm broke a few records as well. Gosh, I don't even know how much cocktail shrimps and mojitos I had that afternoon.
It was quite interesting when someone sitting behind me was talking about the whole government bail out situation at the UT vs Rice game on Saturday. The gentleman's remark was that it's not right that the government is bailing out all these rich executives. I wanted to throw my 2 cents in but I didn't... I didn't want to cause a scene.
Here's what my thoughts are... should the gov't bail out these companies who took on excessive risk and now you have a moral hazard situation where you might actually be encouraging people to take on excessive risk? Yes and no. I don't think the gov't should bail out every company that is about to go out of business, but if the result of that company going out of business will thoroughly rattle the financial market and people's confidence, then yes it should be bailed out. It makes me nervous whenever I hear the phrase "too big to fail." Who's to be the judge of that? I do have to say, if company like AIG or god forbid GS went on... then yeah, we're going to be in big trouble.
All this stuff on banning short selling etc is all very REACTIVE. There needs to be a PROACTIVE approach. Yeah, I know that hindsight is 20/20 and nobody has a crystal ball but the gov't has consistently wait for something to blow up and then figure out how to put out the fire. b/c of Enron we now have SOX 404, which still didn't get the problem solved b/c you have companies reporting something on their balance sheet that's dramatically overvalued. Greed, in this case, is not good. There's been a lot of talk about regulating the hedge funds ever since I started taking accounting classes but I'm almost convinced that we're not going to see anything done in that area until a series of them start blowing up.
It was kind of funny that TV stations were still running AIG ads on Monday but the ads were yanked by Tuesday. (We have CNBC on at the office all the time; you notice silly things like that). One ad in particular, there are bunch of kids together talking about their parents not properly planning things financially and finally one kid said "my parents are with AIG" and the other said "you parents rock!" My buddy and I were at some bar getting ready for Monday Night Football and the ad came on; that's when he said "your parents are fucked!" There's also jokes of changing the AIG sponsorship logo on the Manchester United jersey to the U.S. Treasury seal. I'm not trying to be insensitive; sometimes you just gotta learn how to laugh.
I'm shorting the dollar by longing the Euro (143ish entry on FXE) and long oil since commodity prices are positively correlated with the strength of the dollar. A lot of these oil/energy companies that have been taking a beating might have a nice rally. I've also got a list of regional banks with high short interest and high trading volume... there's too many to list at the moment. There's like 120 on the list that I've generated. If anybody is actually interested I'll email it.
I knew I should at least came in and I managed to bang out what used to be a pretty good day for me, plus I knew we were going to have an office wide happy hour after the close if we finish the week w/ no down days as a firm overall. In fact, our firm broke a few records as well. Gosh, I don't even know how much cocktail shrimps and mojitos I had that afternoon.
It was quite interesting when someone sitting behind me was talking about the whole government bail out situation at the UT vs Rice game on Saturday. The gentleman's remark was that it's not right that the government is bailing out all these rich executives. I wanted to throw my 2 cents in but I didn't... I didn't want to cause a scene.
Here's what my thoughts are... should the gov't bail out these companies who took on excessive risk and now you have a moral hazard situation where you might actually be encouraging people to take on excessive risk? Yes and no. I don't think the gov't should bail out every company that is about to go out of business, but if the result of that company going out of business will thoroughly rattle the financial market and people's confidence, then yes it should be bailed out. It makes me nervous whenever I hear the phrase "too big to fail." Who's to be the judge of that? I do have to say, if company like AIG or god forbid GS went on... then yeah, we're going to be in big trouble.
All this stuff on banning short selling etc is all very REACTIVE. There needs to be a PROACTIVE approach. Yeah, I know that hindsight is 20/20 and nobody has a crystal ball but the gov't has consistently wait for something to blow up and then figure out how to put out the fire. b/c of Enron we now have SOX 404, which still didn't get the problem solved b/c you have companies reporting something on their balance sheet that's dramatically overvalued. Greed, in this case, is not good. There's been a lot of talk about regulating the hedge funds ever since I started taking accounting classes but I'm almost convinced that we're not going to see anything done in that area until a series of them start blowing up.
It was kind of funny that TV stations were still running AIG ads on Monday but the ads were yanked by Tuesday. (We have CNBC on at the office all the time; you notice silly things like that). One ad in particular, there are bunch of kids together talking about their parents not properly planning things financially and finally one kid said "my parents are with AIG" and the other said "you parents rock!" My buddy and I were at some bar getting ready for Monday Night Football and the ad came on; that's when he said "your parents are fucked!" There's also jokes of changing the AIG sponsorship logo on the Manchester United jersey to the U.S. Treasury seal. I'm not trying to be insensitive; sometimes you just gotta learn how to laugh.
I'm shorting the dollar by longing the Euro (143ish entry on FXE) and long oil since commodity prices are positively correlated with the strength of the dollar. A lot of these oil/energy companies that have been taking a beating might have a nice rally. I've also got a list of regional banks with high short interest and high trading volume... there's too many to list at the moment. There's like 120 on the list that I've generated. If anybody is actually interested I'll email it.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
My Momentum
Another very solid day on Wednesday. I took two losing trades at the close where the quotes are a little out of wack. I actually didn't get the closing print instead someone just hit my orders and I got owned in the face. If that hadn't happened, I would've set back to back personal best days. I finished the day maybe $100 shy of the record I set on Tuesday.
I was at a Texas Exes Young Alumni happy hour event at a wine place and I tried to find this wine that I had on the flight back to Taiwan on EVA Air. I knew it was a German Riesling but b/c it was German I didn't really remember the name. Well, I managed to track it down and the wine place had just one last bottle left so I asked them to hold it for me. I picked it up to celebrate and treat myself a little for good trading and sticking to my rules lately. My sister was also in town since they still have no power in Houston after Hurricane Ike and she's been obsessing about the wine as well. I might try to find out where the vineyard is. I really love this wine even though it's borderlining the too sweet side
Today was just equally crazy. VIX went up above 40 and actually went past 42. For those of you not familiar w/ the VIX it's kind of a measurement of volatility. SEC has put in another rule on short selling so I think there were a lot of stocks getting short squeezed at the close. I should've long a whole bunch of EWZ but one of my trailing stops was just a little too tight and I got stopped out and never found a good entry to get back in.
I got some crazy ridiculous print for some crazy amount of shares and in my panic I covered and I just kept getting some really favorable prints all the way to the close and by the time dust settled I have set yet another personal best about SIX times the amount on Tuesday. I don't really like to talk about P&L here, in fact, I don't like to talk about P&L period. It just makes me negative. My parents don't even know how much money I make (or lose sometimes). They would try to coax it out of me sometimes and I simply refuse to tell them. Some of you are probably thinking... well, yeah, it's easy to make six times of $10. Let me assure you, it's not like that. I still don't feel very comfortable talking about the amount, but let's just say it definitely involves more than 5 figures.
This is usually how it is for me though. I'll set a personal best and I'll trade right around it before going back to my regular P&L days. I'm just trying to maximize this momentum right now and kick some major ass before this craziness go away.
I was at a Texas Exes Young Alumni happy hour event at a wine place and I tried to find this wine that I had on the flight back to Taiwan on EVA Air. I knew it was a German Riesling but b/c it was German I didn't really remember the name. Well, I managed to track it down and the wine place had just one last bottle left so I asked them to hold it for me. I picked it up to celebrate and treat myself a little for good trading and sticking to my rules lately. My sister was also in town since they still have no power in Houston after Hurricane Ike and she's been obsessing about the wine as well. I might try to find out where the vineyard is. I really love this wine even though it's borderlining the too sweet side(Sarah, I know you read this... help a brother out)
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
My Triumphant Return
Man, after yesterday's technology fiasco where my computer was FUBAR and I can't see squadush on my monitor I was still fuming a bit this morning so I went out to run this morning. I then promptly remembered I hate running but at least I was feeling better.
Everything went pretty smoothly. We got first some bad quotes from INET and then ARCA went bad later after the fed announcement came out. I tried to slam into EWZ right when the announcement came out but I couldn't get the price that I want. I was fairly light on the shares since I can't rely on the quotes too much and my level 1 was off so I had to modify all my stop triggers. I still could've traded EWZ better especially the break out after the bounce but I felt I was chasing a move that's already been made and not a very good risk reward. I had some orders at the close that I put out too late and I ended up not getting some prints. Traded lots of shares again today. After commission I think I still did make a new personal best.
I signed up for a trial subscription of the platinum briefing trader where you get to see some of the trades people make and what their logic is. The one trader I'm following at the moment is the Scalp Trader. This guys is pretty right on and his logic makes sense. It's nice to have an extra pair of eyes. However, sometimes he's risking more than what I would and I personally don't like to base my trade off of someone else's opinion. I think I took some positions in related companies if he was calling out a trade and they work out pretty well.
Oh, FUBAR stands for f**ked up beyond all recognition btw. Ref: Saving Private Ryan
Everything went pretty smoothly. We got first some bad quotes from INET and then ARCA went bad later after the fed announcement came out. I tried to slam into EWZ right when the announcement came out but I couldn't get the price that I want. I was fairly light on the shares since I can't rely on the quotes too much and my level 1 was off so I had to modify all my stop triggers. I still could've traded EWZ better especially the break out after the bounce but I felt I was chasing a move that's already been made and not a very good risk reward. I had some orders at the close that I put out too late and I ended up not getting some prints. Traded lots of shares again today. After commission I think I still did make a new personal best.
I signed up for a trial subscription of the platinum briefing trader where you get to see some of the trades people make and what their logic is. The one trader I'm following at the moment is the Scalp Trader. This guys is pretty right on and his logic makes sense. It's nice to have an extra pair of eyes. However, sometimes he's risking more than what I would and I personally don't like to base my trade off of someone else's opinion. I think I took some positions in related companies if he was calling out a trade and they work out pretty well.
Oh, FUBAR stands for f**ked up beyond all recognition btw. Ref: Saving Private Ryan
Monday, September 15, 2008
My Black Monday
By black, I mean what I see on my montage this morning. Oh yeah, and the market dropped 500 points, LEH declared bankruptcy, etc etc.
It is absolutely infuriating. Never had I have to restrain myself so hard from breaking stuff. David was in the office today so I went back to trading at my station. I was expecting my computer to be slower compared to David's (my CPU is about a fourth of his) but honestly the worst it has been is that I get my charts to update a little bit slower. I can't see any quotes, none of my charts would update and I can't tell if my stops really did go off if they get triggered. I restarted my computer. Twice. I closed down applications. First ECN cross, then I closed down Skype, then Einstein, and finally all internet browsers. Basically I lost half of the ways I look for trades, I lost communication with my team, then my bread and butter EWZ and EEM trades, finally I have nothing to alert me any updates if news was for or against my positions. While most people were up over a G I'm restarting my computer for the third time.
What pisses me off even more was that I was getting back filled when I don't want to and not getting filled when I need it. The first time my stops went off I thought I didn't get filled so I manually exited out of my position, only to find that I in fact did cover that position for a small loss except now I've reversed my position and losing money on that as well. This happened again where my stop got hit and I thought I would get a back fill again but I didn't... which leaves me to to try to trade out of the position. It happened again for the third time, except this time it was a trailing stop for only 1/3 of one of my positions so I didn't mind as much. Sure enough about a minute later it shows on my blotter that I did cover the position.
You might think a minute is a brief time and not a big deal, well, in what we do even a millisecond can get you a gigantic advantage over somebody else. A good deal of our edge comes from execution.
I almost hit my loss limit. I was prepared to throw a fit if they did turn me off for the day because the loss wasn't b/c of my poor decision making or lack of discipline. I spent the entire day trying to make it back and thank god I did. All I lost today was my commission charges and I have no idea how much that will be since I traded about 3 times as much as what I normally do. I'm still just absolutley fuming right now with all the loss opportunity when my screen is practically blank and while my computer is rebooting... except I'm mentally exhausted from grinding it out all day. I might take a break and then go run or take it out on the punching bag at the gym.
ARGH! FRICK! DOUBLE FRICK! FRICK ON A STICK! FUDGE! FIDDLESTICK! CHEESE AND RICE!! AAAHHHHHHHH.... I'm just so pissed right now.
(on the plus side, I did find out that I was in queue to get a new computer w/ quad CPU maybe by the end of this week)
It is absolutely infuriating. Never had I have to restrain myself so hard from breaking stuff. David was in the office today so I went back to trading at my station. I was expecting my computer to be slower compared to David's (my CPU is about a fourth of his) but honestly the worst it has been is that I get my charts to update a little bit slower. I can't see any quotes, none of my charts would update and I can't tell if my stops really did go off if they get triggered. I restarted my computer. Twice. I closed down applications. First ECN cross, then I closed down Skype, then Einstein, and finally all internet browsers. Basically I lost half of the ways I look for trades, I lost communication with my team, then my bread and butter EWZ and EEM trades, finally I have nothing to alert me any updates if news was for or against my positions. While most people were up over a G I'm restarting my computer for the third time.
What pisses me off even more was that I was getting back filled when I don't want to and not getting filled when I need it. The first time my stops went off I thought I didn't get filled so I manually exited out of my position, only to find that I in fact did cover that position for a small loss except now I've reversed my position and losing money on that as well. This happened again where my stop got hit and I thought I would get a back fill again but I didn't... which leaves me to to try to trade out of the position. It happened again for the third time, except this time it was a trailing stop for only 1/3 of one of my positions so I didn't mind as much. Sure enough about a minute later it shows on my blotter that I did cover the position.
You might think a minute is a brief time and not a big deal, well, in what we do even a millisecond can get you a gigantic advantage over somebody else. A good deal of our edge comes from execution.
I almost hit my loss limit. I was prepared to throw a fit if they did turn me off for the day because the loss wasn't b/c of my poor decision making or lack of discipline. I spent the entire day trying to make it back and thank god I did. All I lost today was my commission charges and I have no idea how much that will be since I traded about 3 times as much as what I normally do. I'm still just absolutley fuming right now with all the loss opportunity when my screen is practically blank and while my computer is rebooting... except I'm mentally exhausted from grinding it out all day. I might take a break and then go run or take it out on the punching bag at the gym.
ARGH! FRICK! DOUBLE FRICK! FRICK ON A STICK! FUDGE! FIDDLESTICK! CHEESE AND RICE!! AAAHHHHHHHH.... I'm just so pissed right now.
(on the plus side, I did find out that I was in queue to get a new computer w/ quad CPU maybe by the end of this week)
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
My Ageless Question
Ok, the title might not make a whole lot of sense and I'm probably just trying to be too cute w/ words, but as my birthday approaching I find me asking myself: "what is old?" It's a question regarding relatives and absolutes, but the question is still there... what is the standard and who sets it.
I met w/ a contractor yesterday to discuss renovation for the condo we owned since I was a freshman and while we were chit chatting he commented that I sound very young on the phone and he thought I was in school. I thought it was kind of funny given that the realtor has also said that I sound young after she called me and heard my voice mail.
To my friends that are still in school, I'm a freaking dinosaur but to I guess people that have been in the "real world" for a while I'm still just a little tadpole. Anyway, I don't feel old, and that's all that matters right?
I met w/ a contractor yesterday to discuss renovation for the condo we owned since I was a freshman and while we were chit chatting he commented that I sound very young on the phone and he thought I was in school. I thought it was kind of funny given that the realtor has also said that I sound young after she called me and heard my voice mail.
To my friends that are still in school, I'm a freaking dinosaur but to I guess people that have been in the "real world" for a while I'm still just a little tadpole. Anyway, I don't feel old, and that's all that matters right?
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
My Whole Lot of Bark, Not Much Bite
So Hurricane Gustav really didn't do much damage, even the helicopter inspection out on the gulf showed that the rigs were ok. There might be some distribution disruption but I really don't foresee a major effect on oil prices. Although, I do have to say that I think oil prices dropped too much too quickly and it makes me a little uncomfortable. I took off some of my positions today in ENER, LUFK, KOL, GMXR, HK, ARD, FWLT, and PTEN. I covered my CEO position short too quickly. It was my largest short position and I've been losing a crap load on it... stupid Chinse ADR. I think I only end up making 60 cents on this. I just don't really like how it'll gap up or down 5 points depending how it did in Asia. There were a lot of other stuff that I didn't get in or I wished I took more shares but really, I think I did the right thing in not risking too much capital on one idea.
I think it was Morgan that came out with the downgrade on DF today. I almost had to laugh when I read the news since that's what I've been hoping for since last week after SAFM and SFD's earnings. Let's see if we can get a few more of the herd to join.
I'm really a little surprised on what kind of prices some of these home builders are trading at. Is the housing market already rebounding? I bought some TMA at 40 cents. Normally I don't like to pick bottom on these low dollar stocks but honestly even if TMA goes bankrupt it's a good risk reward. I'm sure there are still a lot of questions that need to be answered. CNBC won't stop talking about how XHB is the best performing sector lately... makes me want to short it just to spite them.
Gold and Silver is breaking down... hopefully I can still find some mining companies to short.
Three more hurricanes forming in the Atlantic. We'll have to see how much impact they have.
I think it was Morgan that came out with the downgrade on DF today. I almost had to laugh when I read the news since that's what I've been hoping for since last week after SAFM and SFD's earnings. Let's see if we can get a few more of the herd to join.
I'm really a little surprised on what kind of prices some of these home builders are trading at. Is the housing market already rebounding? I bought some TMA at 40 cents. Normally I don't like to pick bottom on these low dollar stocks but honestly even if TMA goes bankrupt it's a good risk reward. I'm sure there are still a lot of questions that need to be answered. CNBC won't stop talking about how XHB is the best performing sector lately... makes me want to short it just to spite them.
Gold and Silver is breaking down... hopefully I can still find some mining companies to short.
Three more hurricanes forming in the Atlantic. We'll have to see how much impact they have.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
My Confusion, Pt. 2
Boy, was I wrong about MW missing earnings. There is never a sure bet when it comes to these earning plays. Well... there's never a sure bet when it comes to trading, period. Sure was glad I didn't play it though.
You know, here's what I'm talking about the confusion... you got a tropical-storm-soon-to-be-hurricane coming. It's not like Katrina, but at least it's the first major big one since Katrina. You would think USO and UNG would go up, but they don't. It gapped up this morning and just losing ground all day. Whatever. This means that the downtrend still holds. You don't trade the news; you trade the reaction. My short order for the coal ETF KOL got triggered and I think I should've taken some profit in the middle of the day when it started bouncing.
I'm going to list the things that didn't quite make sense to me, with what I guess was the reason in the parentheses.
SHLD misses by 12 cents but bounced hard right around 85 (GDP data that came out today)
ENER beats by 8 cents but falls after the open (Oil going down)
Potential big ass hurricane coming but crude and natural gas goes down (Dollar strengthening?)
Oh whatever... what do I know. Nobody knows anything out there. If someone tells me exactly what the market is going to do tomorrow or for any timeline I'd call him a fucking liar in his face.
FNM and FRE is touching that down trend line... I'm tired of playing these two stocks, seriously I wish the government would just come out and we're going to save it or say "let it burn!" It reminds me of a song by Usher
I was looking at the projected path for Gustav, honestly I was more interested to see if our home opening game would be ruined, but it looks like we won't know the full effect of the damage until probably Sunday or Monday. Either way, makes for a VERY interesting open on Tuesday when we come back from Labor Day, especially when we got ISM data coming out at 10 am EST as well.
You know, here's what I'm talking about the confusion... you got a tropical-storm-soon-to-be-hurricane coming. It's not like Katrina, but at least it's the first major big one since Katrina. You would think USO and UNG would go up, but they don't. It gapped up this morning and just losing ground all day. Whatever. This means that the downtrend still holds. You don't trade the news; you trade the reaction. My short order for the coal ETF KOL got triggered and I think I should've taken some profit in the middle of the day when it started bouncing.
I'm going to list the things that didn't quite make sense to me, with what I guess was the reason in the parentheses.
SHLD misses by 12 cents but bounced hard right around 85 (GDP data that came out today)
ENER beats by 8 cents but falls after the open (Oil going down)
Potential big ass hurricane coming but crude and natural gas goes down (Dollar strengthening?)
Oh whatever... what do I know. Nobody knows anything out there. If someone tells me exactly what the market is going to do tomorrow or for any timeline I'd call him a fucking liar in his face.
FNM and FRE is touching that down trend line... I'm tired of playing these two stocks, seriously I wish the government would just come out and we're going to save it or say "let it burn!" It reminds me of a song by Usher
I was looking at the projected path for Gustav, honestly I was more interested to see if our home opening game would be ruined, but it looks like we won't know the full effect of the damage until probably Sunday or Monday. Either way, makes for a VERY interesting open on Tuesday when we come back from Labor Day, especially when we got ISM data coming out at 10 am EST as well.
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