Long Term Trading Ideas

Being in Taiwan gives me a lot of time to think, although I have to believe some of my information is limited but I need to think about some entry and exit strategy for some of the stocks that I like right now and going into 2008.

MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR)

Solar is still hot, the demand for silicone wafers are high and supply is low. Oil probably will break $100 per barrel the next time it approaches. Technically, WFR might be on a breakout move here, we'll see... ideally I'd like it to come back down to the $83, $82 range... $80 outs


Boston Beer Co. Inc. (SAM)

Boston Beer reported a dismal third quarter... the expectation was 42 cents and they missed by 21 cents, or half of the estimate. The stock lost about a 1/3 of its price and I've been wanting to get in for a while. It fell from about $53 to $31, about $22... now I think it's ok to expect it to rebound at least half, back to about $42. It's trading now on Thursday, December 20th at about $36.3 which was way above what I originally wanted to get in. I oringally wanted ot get in at $31... I figured I'd risk a dollar to make ten dollars. I think now I'd either wait for it to break $36.5 then I'd buy or try to wait for it to get closer back to $35, $34. looking at how there was a ceiling (which now should become the floor at $34... which should've been my loud and clearn sign to buy when it broke through), I'll probably be risking two points to make 5, so I think it's still worth it.

With the hops prices going up it's going to hurt the smaller guys much more but I think SAM still has a lot of growth and their purchase of a new facility from DEO fits w/in that growth story.


Nike (NKE)

Nike is just a solid company. Revenue, margin are all growing. The only slight negative is that it's not growing much at all here in the U.S. I personally have this crazy idea that Nike tend to run up a lot more during basketball season from say... October to May or June, or the end of the NBA playoffs. It doesn't want to break that $67 level right now. I want to see if I can pick some shares up at $62, I probably can't though... My out would be at $60


Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)

Wynn is opening up its casino in Macau on Dec. 24th, about a month ahead of schedule. Right now near $115 I think it's a buy. It popped on yesterday's news and now people want to lock in some profit and the pros out there are shorting it. We'll wait for the weak hands to be flushed out before going long. Let's see what it does tomorrow but yeah, I do like it right now since the over excitement about Macau has already been flushed out. If it breaks below $110 I'd get out.


VF Corp (VFC)

The company reaffirms its guidance and it's been in a downtrend lately so it's hard for me to like it but really, w/ products like North Face, VFC and NKE is probably the only consumer related stocks that I like. This is probably a range expansion play. We'll see if it break out. Maybe we'll be able to get in at $72, out would be at $68, risk four to make 13... acceptable.


Monsanto (MON)

Ag play is hot in 2008... I think. MON is probably my favorite ag play b/c of its effort in genetically modified crops, which is not something POT and MOS can offer. Get in MON close to $100, below $97 I'm out. Target $120. Risk 3 for 20. I'm down.


The Mosaic Co (MOS)

It's been trending up nicely and consolidating here, forming a nice base. I'd either get in close to $80 or $86 after it break out of its range. The outs are harder to gauge though... I'd probably will give it just a point or two.