Rest in Peace, Borat

Calm down, Sascha Baron Coen is not really dead... he's just retiring the character Borat, along w/ Ali G. I'm sure some people will miss him dearly, me included. Can you say: "no more sexxy time... not so good for me?"

For now, let's look forward to the Bruno movie, the gay Austrian fashion reporter from his HBO show and his role w/ Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd.

Long Term Trading Ideas

Being in Taiwan gives me a lot of time to think, although I have to believe some of my information is limited but I need to think about some entry and exit strategy for some of the stocks that I like right now and going into 2008.

MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR)

Solar is still hot, the demand for silicone wafers are high and supply is low. Oil probably will break $100 per barrel the next time it approaches. Technically, WFR might be on a breakout move here, we'll see... ideally I'd like it to come back down to the $83, $82 range... $80 outs


Boston Beer Co. Inc. (SAM)

Boston Beer reported a dismal third quarter... the expectation was 42 cents and they missed by 21 cents, or half of the estimate. The stock lost about a 1/3 of its price and I've been wanting to get in for a while. It fell from about $53 to $31, about $22... now I think it's ok to expect it to rebound at least half, back to about $42. It's trading now on Thursday, December 20th at about $36.3 which was way above what I originally wanted to get in. I oringally wanted ot get in at $31... I figured I'd risk a dollar to make ten dollars. I think now I'd either wait for it to break $36.5 then I'd buy or try to wait for it to get closer back to $35, $34. looking at how there was a ceiling (which now should become the floor at $34... which should've been my loud and clearn sign to buy when it broke through), I'll probably be risking two points to make 5, so I think it's still worth it.

With the hops prices going up it's going to hurt the smaller guys much more but I think SAM still has a lot of growth and their purchase of a new facility from DEO fits w/in that growth story.


Nike (NKE)

Nike is just a solid company. Revenue, margin are all growing. The only slight negative is that it's not growing much at all here in the U.S. I personally have this crazy idea that Nike tend to run up a lot more during basketball season from say... October to May or June, or the end of the NBA playoffs. It doesn't want to break that $67 level right now. I want to see if I can pick some shares up at $62, I probably can't though... My out would be at $60


Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)

Wynn is opening up its casino in Macau on Dec. 24th, about a month ahead of schedule. Right now near $115 I think it's a buy. It popped on yesterday's news and now people want to lock in some profit and the pros out there are shorting it. We'll wait for the weak hands to be flushed out before going long. Let's see what it does tomorrow but yeah, I do like it right now since the over excitement about Macau has already been flushed out. If it breaks below $110 I'd get out.


VF Corp (VFC)

The company reaffirms its guidance and it's been in a downtrend lately so it's hard for me to like it but really, w/ products like North Face, VFC and NKE is probably the only consumer related stocks that I like. This is probably a range expansion play. We'll see if it break out. Maybe we'll be able to get in at $72, out would be at $68, risk four to make 13... acceptable.


Monsanto (MON)

Ag play is hot in 2008... I think. MON is probably my favorite ag play b/c of its effort in genetically modified crops, which is not something POT and MOS can offer. Get in MON close to $100, below $97 I'm out. Target $120. Risk 3 for 20. I'm down.


The Mosaic Co (MOS)

It's been trending up nicely and consolidating here, forming a nice base. I'd either get in close to $80 or $86 after it break out of its range. The outs are harder to gauge though... I'd probably will give it just a point or two.

Is It Really A Small World After All?

The itinerary I got from our travel agency says my flight leaves at 11:25am on Saturday. I get to the airport at like 10:30, I'm thinking I've got plenty of time right? Well, I get to the self-check in kiosk and it tells me that I can't check my luggage in b/c there's less than 30 minutes. I'm thinking: "uh oh!" I talk to the ticketing agent, yeah, flight is now at 11:10 and it is now 10:50. Can anyone say flash back of Chicago this summer when we missed our connecting flight from Germany? Boy, am I glad I decided to take the duffle bag instead of a regular, BIGGER suitcase b/c I was either gonna have to take my luggage with me or take the next flight to L.A. at around 5pm and miss my connecting flight to Taiwan. Quite frankly, when the guy at the counter, who I think was gay, suggested that I wanted to ask him how he got his GED. Ugh, stupid people everywhere.

Lesson: Remember to check your flight for confirmation before you leave...

When I got on the plane, I had like one shoe on, all my stuff are stuffed somewhere in my jacket to ease the security check point, my belt is dangling from my neck and the camera lens in my messenger bag is just waiting for a jail break. Now, I didn't really talk to the person next to me since she took a nap pretty much right as we took off and I was busy saying prayers and thank yous to the big guy upstairs, but on our descent she asked me:

"Do you live in L.A.?"
"Oh no, I live in Austin."

And then we started talking about high school, which turns out she went to one where I knew quite a few kids at UT went to, connected with Elizabeth Brummett's name and then led to Camp Texas and Student Government. When she said she was in SG, I kind of thought I knew who she was but then again there has been a lot of Staceys in SG so I dismissed the thought in my head. Well, after I looked up Brummett's friends on facebook and I saw the last name I knew exactly who she was. I mean, for crying out loud almost every year they'd use her and Katie King as an example on how close the SG election could be and why people should vote. This girl, Stacey Kunelias, happens to be the SG Vice President when I was a freshman.

Maybe it's not THAT interesting, but I certainly like to think so.

I Want to Take My Job Behind the Middle School and Get It pregnant

Solid week of work last week (although I'm updating on Wednesday). Made well over a grand and was the #3 rookie for the week. It still kind of pisses me off that I didn't catch any part of that AIG action on Friday though. Larsen got 1500 shares of it and beat me out handily. Even after the terrible terrible week before, I'm only down about $100... which makes me feel more comfortable thinking about super yahtzeeing when I get back to work. But hey, work can wait, I'm on vacation right now, technically.

I didn't really want to fly back to Taiwan since I'd be missing work. At first I only wanted to take a week off but my dad convinced me to take an additional week since my manager was ok with it as well. Especially now that I'm on a hot streak I really regret taking that extra week, but it's been interesting so far. My fingers itch, seriously, b/c I feel like I'm missing out on the action. I found out how to access my work email and looking at the company stock report and the daily top rookie list doesn't help at all. I've got the log in for briefing.com so I'm gonna try to stay updated on the news so I can hit the ground running when I come back. Maybe dad can take me to a brokerage office and I could paper trade the Taiwanese market and if I do well I'll trade with real capital next week.

Oh boy....

I think I'm letting my success the past two weeks get to my head. Down $800 yesterday, down about another $400 today so far. Usually I start out pretty good, up about $100 or just below it and then I'll get a bad loss or forget to put my stop in and it'll spiral from there on. I'm allowing myself to think that I'm better than I am.

What to do from here now? going back to basics. Keep my losses tight. Under trade. No big spread guys or stocks that are moving pretty crazy.

Did I Really Just Yahtzeed?

I think I yahtzeed today... I think. My balance was about negative -$818 before today and at the end of the day my rough P/L calculation was just shy of $860. I didn't trade that many shares, only about 6,000 so it's hard to imagine that my commission would be off by more than $40. All thanks to ADS, hehehe.

I was doing ok today, up about $125 before this news, or rumor that ADS buyout price or whatever is being lowered. Apparently the same thing was going on w/ CCU... something to do w/ Blackstone. This stock normally barely make a move and all of a sudden it goes from $78 down to about $63.50 area. When it happened I kept telling myself that I am not going to trade a news play, it was just too risky. I then see it goes back up after this huge down move. Huge offers gets taken out one after one, like this 100,000 share gone in a flash. I couldn't resist and I longed a 100 shares at $66.26... thinking that I'd risk that 26 cents and get out at whole number if it didn't work out. Little did I know my account turns green quickly and very soon it show $20, then $50, then $100 and $500. It was as if someone came out and said "psyche bitches!! rumor ain't true!!" All this time I keep moving my stops up to a point below. I even said it out when I got in it that this thing could move back to $75. I see this thing move up to $73.50 and come back down to $73 and I hit the ECN to get out.... stupid. It barely rested, took a breath, or let out a fart and kept going... how sweet would it be if I added to it and I held to at least $75 or even to the highest of that first move of about $76.5.

Regardless... I step away from my desk for a while and just walk around the office. My hands were visibly shaking and my heart pounding. Holy cow! I was still short of yahtzeeing at that point, not if I had held on to my shares... =( I wanted to be careful and not have a blow up like I tend to do after having a good day. I even considered at one point that if I make a losing trade I'd close up shop and go home for the day. Fortunately I did get in a few good trades, the kind of setups that I look for even though I majorly chumped both trades... sigh....

It's like another validation, you know. It's like when I had my first back to back net positive weeks and increased my capital. It's like saying: "hey, you're playing w/ the big boys now. Practice is over." I'm thinking a lot today, I'll update them later as I get some discussion going w/ Lawrence and other guys on the team or other traders. It has a lot to do w/ payouts, position sizing and expectations.

Lizards

Premise:

Reversal pattern, for day trading only.

For Buys:

1. Today's (day one) open and close must be in the top 25 percent of its daily range.
2. Today's low must be a 10-trading-day low.
3. Tomorrow buy 1/8 above the day-one high.
4. Maximum risk is 1 point and if you are not stopped out, sell the position on the close.

For Shorts:

1. Today's (day one) open and close must be in the bottom 25 percent of its daily range.
2. Today's high must be a 10-trading-day high.
3. Tomorrow sell short 1/8 below the day-one low.
4. Maximum risk is 1 point and if you are not stoped out, cover the short position on the close.

Whoops

Premise:

A stock pop up on positive comments only to quickly reverse.

For Shorts

1. A stock must be trading under its 10-day and 50-day moving averages.
2. The previous day's close must be below the open.
3. Today's open must be at least 1/4 point above yesterday's close.
4. Sell short at 1/8 of a point below yesterday's close.
5. Maximum initial risk is 1 point.
6. If stopped out, re-enter at the previous entry point (today only).
7. If the stock moves strongly in your favor, move the stop 1/8 of a a point below the entry price; a stock that snaps back to being positive on the day could be staginga reversal and you don't want the profit to turn into a loss.

Slingshots

Premise:

Identifies which new highs or new lows have the best chance of follow-through, this strategy takes advantage of breakouts that are initially not "real." Basically you wait for the weak hand momentum players to be flushed out before getting in the position.

For Buys

1. Day one: stock makes a new two-month high.
2. Day two: The market takes out day-one low by at least 1/8.
3. Day two or three only: Buy if the stock trades 1/8 above the day-one high.
4. Risk two points.

For Shorts

1. Day one: The stock makes a new two-month low.
2. Day two: The market takes out day-one high by at least 1/8
3. Day two or three only: Sell short if stock trades 1/8 below the day-one low.
4. Risk two points.

Boomers

Premise:

trending stocks will pause and have a "quiet period" from time to time, followed by explosive moves.

For Buys

1. For buys, ADX must be more than 30 and the + DI more than the -DI, or RS must be 95 or greater
2. Day two's high must be less than or equal to day one's high and its low must be greater than or equal to day one's low.
3. Day three's high must be less than or equal to day two's high and its low must be greater than or equal to day two's low.
4. For unptrending stocks, on day four only, we will buy 1/8 above the day-three high. Our stop will be 1/8 below the day-three low.

For Shorts

1. ADX must be more than 30 and the -DI must be more than the + DI, or the stock must be downtrending strongly.
   Day two's high must be less than or equal to day one's high and its low must be greater than or equal to day one's low.
   Day three's high must be less than or equal to day two's high and its low must be greater than or equal to day two's low.
2. For downtrending stocks, on day four only, we will sell short 1/8 below the day-three low. We will protect ourselves by covering our short position 1/8 above the day-three high.