Some of my oil/energy short orders got triggered with the fear of a hurricane and it can be pretty easy to push prices around in this low volume. I think this hurricane is a little different the previous two (or was it three?) we had this season. The previous ones were quickly dismissed as no threat to the rigs out on the gulf, but judging by the projected path of this one it might actually do some damage. I've changed my limit orders to just flags now. I don't want to end up with so many positions again that I can't think clearly. If the hurricane turns out to be a whole lot of nothing I think this little spike could get you some nice entries with a reasonable stop.
I'm still up on my ENER short position from 79.95... this coming storm, oil inventories on Wednesday and I think ENER reports earnings on Thursday make me want to take profits. I'm down on GMXR and I might give it only another point b/c I take a loss. I wanted to short SPWR when it was around 97 but with the recent report about LDK and STP's good earnings and contracts I wanted to sit out and observe more. I personally want to think the solar story is over for now. A lot of these contracts were in the past, it's more important about the future projection. We'll see what SOLF says on Wednesday.
MW reports after the close on Wednesday. I might play it if I was up a lot for the day. I'm short biased against Men's Wearhouse. I think it's crap.
SAFM and SFD reported today, I think one beat earnings and the other missed; can't remember which at the moment, but both cited challenging environment, particularly the cost. I put on my DF short and it's working so far; hopefully some analyst come out and downgrade the entire industry. HRL wasn't really moving and TSN I got in kind of late for only a slight profit. PPC started dying and I really should've gotten in with earlier and with more size. I knew about the two earnings today, I simply forgot about PPC was in that group so it too me some time to believe in the move. I think that was my best trade for the day.
Russia (RSX) gapped down and finished lower again, although I'm starting to hear CNBC talk about Russia more now. It could be that they don't have anything else to cover. I mean... c'mon, they did some story on Guitar Hero today that I think they even forgot to say the stock implication. It was more about this "new" guitar they have out. It could also be an indicator that it's bottomed, as we all know often analysts downgrade the bottom and upgrade the top. Sell the frenzy and buy the panic I guess.
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2 comments:
I like your blog. You are at a
place with great opportunities
for scalping. Why are you making
these kind of plays? I don't
see how you have more than a minimal edge.
Your rationales for trades
are always:
I bought X because of
some fundamental/technical reason.
Why don't you have your read of
the level II or box as a reason?
I can't imagine that you make
more money than a scalper that
can read the box or level II well.
Thank you for the compliment. It's true. Kershner is a great place for scalping... from the technology that we have and order execution. I do make a lot of plays off of the level II and open book, I just don't really write about it. I just don't find them as interesting and level II changes so unless I post and have someone follow this real time I don't feel there's a whole lot of benefit to that. Also there are certain plays I make that are based off of proprietary technology we have at Kershner that is in my and the firm's best interest that I not talk about them here.
My goal is not to be a scalper for the rest of my life. I do plan on going back to school and I would like run my own fund some day. My guess is that Stevie Cohen and Warren Buffet is probably not out there scalping for nickels and dimes all the time either. So these little "exercises" are really more to help me get to where I want to be. I want to make money as a scalper and a long term traders where I don't have to watch my screen all the time.
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