Monday, August 25, 2008

My Slow Week?

This is the week before Labor Day, typically really slow and I think volume in most stocks and ETFs today was about 60% to almost half of their average volume. I haven't dialed down my trading shares and I really ought to this week.

I was a bit surprised at how many important numbers and earnings, especially retailers, are coming out this week. Well, I say they're important I mean they're at least interesting to me. Too bad we might not get any reaction from them at all, maybe a hiccup and that's it. Maybe this will set up for a crazy start in September after Labor Day like what happened back on MLK Day.

I'll be watching the earnings for SAFM and SFD, they sell chicken and pork, respectively. DF I think would also be in play (DF sells milk products) other than the obvious HRL and TSN. DF and SFD have shown relative strength after having multiple downgrades. We'll see if maybe they go right back down to where they bounced.

Speaking of DF... I'm really surprised what a beating WBD has taken along with the Russian ETF RSX. I can't tell how much of the down slide is related to what's going on in Georgia. I want to say the down slide started long before Georgia and that only made it worse. I'll be watching and waiting for sign of rebound in both of them.

Oh, before I get back on track again... I just realized lately that there's an ETF for heating oil, except that the volume is really too low for my liking. It might be a good idea to find a good entry right now before winter comes.

Anyway, among the retailers reporting this week, AEO, BIG, CHS, JCG, TLB, SHLD, TIF, TWB, ZLC, WSM and DDS. I haven't been able to borrow shares of ZLC so I think I'll probably just play BIG and SHLD. On top of that, we have consumer confidence and FOMC minutes coming out on Tuesday, durable goods orders along with the regular crude inventories on Wednesday, GDP on Thursday, and Chicago PMI and Michigan Sentiment on Friday. Let's please get some consistency going and form some kind of trend, but I wouldn't be surprised we end up down 200 pts one day in reaction to one number and up another 150 the next day b/c the number is not as bad as anticipated.

Nevertheless, let's get ready for some FOOTBALL! USC @ Virginia, Alabama @ Clemson, Illinois @ Missouri, and who knows, maybe Appalachian State will repeat their upset last year over Michigan at LSU this week (LSU doesn't exactly have their QB issue settled, so I wouldn't be too surprised)

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