Monday, June 23, 2008
10:00 - Consumer Confidence
MON reports before the open... too risky, I don't think I'll get in it. Although if you hold a gun to my head I'd get long.
8:30 - Durable Orders
10:30 - Crude Inventories (D-Day for my UCR/DCR trade)
14:15 - FOMC Policy Statement
Reporting after the close - NKE... not sure which way, probably won't play this either. I'd get long ORCL if I can get a nice entry, RIMM... no clue
Before the open: depending on the housing numbers I'll determine which way I want to go w/ LEN
8:30 - GDP, Q1 Final
After the close: PALM if I can get shares short
Before the open: again, depending on the housing number and LEN's numbers I'll decided which side to take my position.
In general... coal is still on fire, with the exception of PCX, maybe it's drawing some short selling attention. I picked a few of these guys for the CNBC contest and it's been working well. PCX, JRCC, NCOC, ICO, FDG, ACI. HK I think is being added to the Russell 1000, strong buying indication in this guy. WNR I think is leaving.
Made some nice calls on the FDX, KMX, and WGO. I'm feeling even better about these earnings trades when I have a stronger feeling or more indication which way it's going to go.
Back to back positive week. I was actually kind of nervous going into Friday since I was still down slightly for the week b/c of a few trades that I took big size didn't work out in my favor. Missed a few great opportunities... and I'm still grieving about it as well. I know I can do better. We got one more solid week of trading left in June, it's time to kick some butt.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
ADBE and LZB after the close. I don't have a strong feeling about either one, but if you hold a gun to my head I'd get long ADBE and short LZB.
BBY and GS before the open. Still don't have a strong bias either way but their numbers could definitely move the market one way or another.
PPI, Housing and Industrial Production numbers out all before the opening bell, should be an very interesting day
KMX, FDX, LNN, MS before the open. Depending on the risk reward, I'd get short KMX, FDX, MS and long LNN.
CCL, PIR, MESA, and CC. Short bias against all of these guys, but again, depending on the risk/reward. HRB after the close, the estimate seems too high in a down economy, I'd go short
Philadelphia Fed Index right after the bell.
WGO before the open. Most likely short.
Play #1: Stocks that are news to the 80/80 list or even the 90 tend to run up
I don't know how many plays I can find with this assumption, because from what I've seen stocks have already made somewhat of a run before they get on the list. The idea is that there are other funds using the IBD data and they'll reallocate their portfolio to these stronger stocks. I'll just have to add them to a watch list somewhere and keep watching.
Play #2: Stocks off the 80/80 list
Same idea, except the reverse. Funds will probably dump the stocks that moved off the 80/80 list, but chances are the stocks have already made a significant down move, therefore diminishing your risk/reward.
Play #3: Stocks with strong EPS or Fund Buying Rating dipped
This is the one that I'm trying out on CNBC this week. The idea is that there's a strong buying by other funds and there's the likelihood that they'll buy more of a stock that's retraced so the stock will bounce back. Some of the oil stocks have retraced but now the news just out that Saudi is going to increase production... I'll have to get it in the mornig early to see how oil is trading and maybe cancel some of my allocations to these oil stocks.
Here's my watch list:
Oil/Energy: SWN, OXY, CWEI, KWK, RRC, PQ, GLF
Coal: JRCC, PCX
China: XIN, EJ
Other: BAP, WBD, MTL, NCS, PAC, TNH, SDA
If oil is gapped down in the moring I'll probably dump these oil energy guys and I don't know how that might affect the two coal stocks I'm watching. I'm guessing it's going to have some negative effects. China hasn't been trading that well recently, maybe it's due for a bounce? All the other ones are pretty good I think. Like TNH, which is a top performing stock in a top sector selling fertilizers has been hammered pretty hard or SDA which produces steel and cement in Brazil is touching the bottom of that uptrend gives you a great entry and risk/reward.
I don't know if anybody noticed this, but Santogold has been used into BOTH the new Bud Light Lime commercials. It's kind of weird but kudos to whomever the creative director is at Anheuser Busch. He or she must be a big Santogold fan like me. The song in the first ad is "Lights Out" and the second one is "Creator."
Does this make me want to buy the beer? Eh, a little bit more than I would normally, but I hate a lot of the domestic beers, especially Miller and Budweiser. They just taste like bland fizzy piss, so I imagine Bud Light Lime taste like sour fizzy piss. But if you offer it to me for free at a BBQ, maybe I won't turn it down now.
Saturday, June 14, 2008
The Ting Tings: If Yeah Yeah Yeah's and CSS had a baby, that's what The Ting Tings would sound like.
The Cool Kids: Bringing the old school beat box flavor back. Although they still rap about material things, it's more about sneakers and bikes rather than blings and Cristal.
Priscilla Anh: She just had a song featured on Grey's Anatomy. Blue Note is the same label that launched Norah Jones. Definitely worthy a listen. I saw her at SXSW w/ the Hotel Cafe Tour, which included other artists anointed by Grey's like Joshua Radin and Ingrid Michaelson. She's got a wacky fun personality. She performed a song with ukulele and kazoo in the middle of her set =)
Next week, look out for Coldplay's Viva la Vida and Katy Perry's One of the Boys.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
I was also pretty upset about missing some great opportunities last week. They were easy set up, easy money. The lob pass was there and I just completely missed the slam dunk. I whiffed bad. My orders were out there and they just didn't get filled. It sucked. It sucked hard. I think I was on a slow server... Even if you're retarded you could've made at least 2 G's on it and some people in the office made over 10. God, it still makes me sick to my stomach when I think about it. There were a few trades again on Friday that I didn't get filled on. Argh.
Lately I've been just trying to make back that big down day and I'm almost there. It's a little harder that Lawrence has capped my size a little bit, but we're back on the old way of increasing size/max order/capital after back to back up week so it gives me extra motivation to trade better. We're still focusing on bringing in my losers. My down efficiency last month was -0.0699 and Lawrence and Jane wants me to shoot for -0.06... I dunno, just seems crazy to me. It feels like I won't be giving a lot of trades enough room to work, but I suppose that's still reasonable. The -0.06 is on average, so I can still give my EEM 15 cents and maybe give EWZ a little less room and definitely rein in the losses in low dollar stocks. This is really going to force me to look for top entries.
I want to also pick up new plays. I'm focusing on the imbalance, gapper, and IBD plays. There are too many things to focus on during the trading hours sometimes I forget about them... I've been right a couple of times about some of the earning plays that I want to make where I think the company will either jump or dip significantly after they report earnings so I'll get in right before the close, again... things are kind of hectic at the close that I forget about them.
This is great though. I've been looking for something to do on the side. I get to work with my old GA, Jim Byrd, who's now the course instructor. This officially plugs me into the Dale Carnegie network and the speaking/training industry in a way. Who knows what this might lead to. Maybe I'll work my way up and they'll let me go out to close a few sales or maybe become an instructor one day myself. I've done the whole Toastmasters thing and I miss it quite a bit.
If you're unfamiliar with the dude in the picture, he's like the author of How to Win Friends and Influence People and How to Stop Worrying and Start Living. I can't think of anybody else that has written a book in this interpsonal/inspirational/self-help book category before him. It was first published well over 70 years ago and the same concepts still apply today. I guess you can call him the father, excuse me, make that grandfather of self-help books.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
I'm getting hit especially hard this year. I have more wedding invitation than electricity bills this year and they don't seem to stop coming. Plus some DJ and photographer gigs/favors this is shaping up to be a busy summer.
I didn't take as many pictures as I intended to, mostly b/c I spent the entire time on the dance floor and I feel rude snapping bunch of photos in the middle of the ceremony, especially when there's a hired photographer on call. I particularly like this photo. I was trying to get the ring on either John or Sarah's finger to be the focus. Some of them were ok, it was just that Sarah was laughing or doing this thing where she keeps tucking her chin in so the photo didn't come out very flattering. I still have a lot to go to hone my skills, plus I think I need to get equipments, an external flash, a diffuser for the flash, tripod, and a different lens with low f-stop since I'm getting into shooting concerts and it just comes in handy in low lighting situations.
It gets old every time I tell my parents I'm gone for the weekend for a wedding and they ask me when it's my turn. I'm not really in a hurry you know? I have the rest of my life to spend with this person and I shouldn't rush that decision. If you do happen to meet the person that makes you happy, you're lucky and more power to you.
Whenever it'll be, I know three things for certain, #1: My cake is going to be bad ass, like the ones Duff from Food Network's Ace of Cakes. #2: The food is off the hook, as Andrew from this season's Top Chef says, "gastronomical boner." #3: The first dance will blow your socks off. You probably have seen some of these "surprise" dances videos on Youtube where the music sounds like it's skipping or the DJ does something weird and then the couple does some fake ass acting job pretending to don't know what's happening and then transition into their sometimes awkward choreography. A lot of these videos they're just doing popular dances like The Apache, some Michael Jackson stuff (the one below is the first one I came across. It's pretty good). I think mine will be more closer to Dancing with the Stars. I'm going to mix my own music and you're going to see the classical ballroom steps and techniques but I will definitely be adding in some hip-hop and break dancing flavor. Hey, she can have all the rest of the wedding, but these things are where I get to make my statement. And honestly, if she's not into the dance idea.... I am probably marrying the wrong person. So darling, whoever you are, I know we haven't met but make sure your dress is comfortable and you can move in it.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
However, Thomas Bangalter and Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo don’t seem to feel pressured to produce new music quickly. “They are slow, you know,” Busy P told In The Mix. “They are taking their time, and they have a right.”
Although you probably shouldn’t start holding your breath now for a new Daft Punk record any time soon, there are plenty of other ways to get your fix until the new album drops.
Since 2005, the duo has toured in support of Human After All, making appearances at last year’s Lollapalooza and Oxegen Festivals. The pair also released a silent movie, Electroma, which premiered at the 2006 Cannes Film Festival. Last year, rapper Kanye West teamed up with Daft Punk, using “Harder Better Faster Stronger” in his track, “Stronger,” a major hit of 2007.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
What I wanted to hear was: "Yes, some of these fees are ridiculous and we're going to get rid of it," or "We believe in you and trust in your decision making. Go and trade with more shares. A lot more shares." What I got was almost both. I knew there were discussion going on with the fees and what we have implemented now is that you won't be charge of the $1,100 infrastructure fees the first three months and half for the next months. And if I was having 60% winning percentage, Gardner himself sees no reason why I shouldn't increase my size.
There were time in the early part of the conversation where I notice Gardner's hands were shaking a little bit. From my experience with speaking and poker... it either means that he was nervous or excited and that was a way to release the energy. I'm not quite sure what to make of it at the moment yet.
A lot was said, it was hard to digest everything at the moment. But management seems content with the payout structure we have. Put it this way, hedge funds get 2 & 20, meaning 2% of the total asset and then 20% of the profit. If you're trading at a prop desk at say Goldman and you're not pulling in millions of dollar you'd be getting about 10%. By my judgement, management feels it's a great deal and we're lucky to have the 35% split and move up to 50%. On top of that we don't have to risk our own capital. With the new plan, the numbers should come out about the same. I'm at no disadvantage now than if I was on the older plan with less fees. It's just the number might seem bigger and it does mess your mind a bit. It's good to see from Gardner his conviction in the company. He believe in our technology and our support, and if anybody wants to go to Ascent or other firms just so they can get some money right away he's not going to stand in their way.
What I remeber most vividly was Gardner telling me that I should be excited right now. If I'm making money in this terrible market that we know, when we get some good moves and volume going I'd be ready to multiple that many times. He said that I'm about to turn my chart into a hockey stick (referrs to the way our growth chart looks like after leveling and then grows hyperbolically). I just got to believe and not let fear be part of my trading. I don't remember what exactly Gardner said at one point but I told him that it was funny b/c it reminded me of something I read somewhere or from a podcast that When you're about to quit, you're a lot closer than you think. I suppose that's pretty true. I'm probably closer to making it than I realize. As Roger Seip said back when we were selling books with Southwestern, it doesn't make you a bad person if you think about quitting. Everybody does it. You just have to realize that they're just thought.
I did go out and trade a lot more shares on the 2nd half of Friday and on Monday. My total shares were about 3 times as much and certain imbalance trades that I probably took 4 or 5 times what I usually do. Result was somewhat mixed. I did lose a little bit on Friday but part of that was due to a little bit of overtrading and overcovering one of my trades. If I divided my numbers by 3 or 4 it's about the small drawn down that I usually have. Monday I probably just scratched the day, again, getting in about 3 or 4 times the shares. I feel pretty good. I think at one point I did feel my hands shaking when I was in a lot of EEM. So, we'll see what happens this month. Volume was pretty good today, at least about average I think. I hate looking up and see the relative volume for SPY or EEM only at like .75 sometimes