Wednesday, March 26, 2008
My thought? I'm not trying to let it affect my trading too much. I can kind of see some people doing stupid stuff trying to advance. I certainly would not want to take on unnecessary risk b/c of it and get blown out. The thing is, anything can happen on any given day. One good or bad trade can make or break your day.
But going to the championship game would be wicked cool.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
I felt the market was going strong today so I was longing SPY or EEM on retracement and I shorted SKF. I got stopped out of EEM, but my SKF and SPY turned out well. That plus a few nice prints in JPM and MO* resulted in a $500 day.
I hope to carry this slight momentum and finish out this week strong b4 I head to DC. Daniel and Jennifer have been blowing it up and they both started the same time as me. I need to find that something that will be give me the edge and just friggin' pound it.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Library of Congress?
Nationals opening day
Texas vs Stanford, 7:30pm on Friday
Cherry Blossom Festival opening day on Saturday
Thursday, March 20, 2008
There were two trades, FIS and GLG, one dropped and another one popped and I traded the reversal. I made some money on it, but both made it all the way back. I need to start holding my winners better, or take more size or add to them as they go in my favor.
Got some closing prints that saved my day... I didn't lose money on Visa IPO at all. In fact, I made some. I'm not good at trading IPOs yet. I'm happy w/ today's result.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Platinum badge: $1050
Music badge: $650
Seeing all your favorite bands for free: PRICELESS
Ok, so the free part is not entirely true. I did spend $20 to get into The Parish last Thursday night for the Hotel Cafe Showcase where people like Kate Havnevik, Cary Brothers, Joshua Radin, Ingrid Michaelson and Sara Bareilles played. Other than that, I didn't spend a dollar.
I'm slightly disappointed that I didn't get to see White Denim, Tokyo Police Club, and Scissors for Lefty. The whole waiting in line or commuting to a different venue makes it just impossible to see all the bands you want or they play at the same time as another band. The sooner you accept that fact the better. No matter where you go, you're going to hear about a certain set or party that was just off the hook.
It was very interesting to go to SXSW w/ my DSLR. A lot of people assume that I was working. Some would even give me their spot in the front, which usually is not necessary b/c I'm already up scoping out the good angles. Unfortunately the good angles, more so w/ smaller stages, are usually right by the speakers. I didn't have my ear plugs with me the first day and my ears hated me that night. Shooting concerts is so tricky man... if your shutter speed is not fast enough the image comes out blurry but if it's too fast you don't let in enough light. Cranking up the aperture and ISO doesn't really help sometimes. And if you choose to use flash sometimes the light comes out really harsh and you lose the background lighting and the environment of the whole show.
I snuck out of the office on Thursday to see The Raveonettes, The Shout Out Louds and Sara Bareilles. When I came back everybody on my team is up at least a G, some up three G's. Apparently there's been something that keeps printing down and they just keep racking up $100 after another. It really makes me upset... On top of that I was out late but I forgot that I had a position open overnight. When I got a phone call the next morning I knew exactly what it was for... luckily I closed out the position even. I could easily come in the office up $500 or down $500. I also missed the entire BSC move on Friday... ARGH!
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Nothing really worthwhile mentioning during the market hours. I traded SKF pretty well on 100 shares going long on it. I almost made back my pre-market losses but I tried to get short EEM at the close thinking that people are going to take profit but it just kept going up. I got stopped out couple of times... I did get long once but then we had some bad quotes or what not so I got out of my position.
Didn't get a lot of the closing prints... I'm pretty pissed.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Had a bad loser in VMW today. It just moves too fast and the spread is big. I was short when it was bouncing and I even added to it. It was just stupid. Lost about $400 on it.
I got short on WCG when it was moving up higher and higher for 1,000 shares @ 46.43 but I didn't make too much on it. It just trend lower for the rest of the day and there was news on one of the health care companies that sends all of them down after market. If I had held to to the close, which I probably wouldn't I would've made about 6 and a half points on this. I know there's no way I would've known about the news but it just makes me a little bit upset b/c I got the high print of the day and I didn't do very much with it.
Still trading SLV pretty well. There was one that I let it slip a little bit too much but as long as I keep identifying good opportunities when GLD breaks support or resistance I should do pretty well on it.
- The fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions.
- Being wrong is acceptable, but staying wrong is totally unacceptable. Being wrong isn't a choice, but staying wrong is.
- Understand that you will always make mistakes. The only way to prevent mistakes from turning into disasters is to accept losses while they are small and then move on
- Concentrate on mastering one style that suits your personality, which is a lifetime process. Most people just cannot weather the learning curve. As soon as it gets difficult, and their approach isn't working up to their expectations, they being to look for something else. As a result, they become slightly efficient in many areas without ever becoming very good in any single methodology.
- You need to have a plan for every contingency... ... ... The most important contingency plan is the one that will limit your loss if you are wrong. Beyond that, you need a plan to get back into the trade if you're stopped out.
- Many amateur investors get sloppy after gains because they fall into the trap of thinking of their winnings as the "market's money," and in no time, the market takes it back. It's your money as long as you protect it.
- You don't have to make all-or-nothing decisions. If a stock is up and you're unsure what to do, there's nothing wrong with taking profits on part of it.
- Don't let your ego get in the way
- Don't allow yourself to be influenced by what other people think
- Many people approach investing too casually. They treat investing as a hobby instead of like a business; hobbies cost money.
- None of this is a black box. You have all these people trying to come up with formulas to bea the market. The market is not a science. The science may help increase the probabilities, but to excel you need to master the art of trading
Sunday, March 9, 2008
LONDON -- A bettor has won $1.97 million after placing a wager for just $1.
The man, thought to be in his late 50s or early 60s, placed the bet in bookmakers William Hill's shop in Thirsk, northern England, on Friday, predicting the winners of eight races in an accumulator wager at total odds of 2 million-to-1.
His first winner was an 8-1 chance called Isn't That Lucky, the last a 5-2 shot named A Dream Come True. The others were priced at 10-1, 15-2, 11-2 (twice), 4-1 and 7-2.
William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe told Reuters on Saturday: "When he was told what he had won he visibly blanched -- and then said he would have to go and tell his wife."
The man only learned of his good fortune when he called in at another William Hill shop in nearby Bedale to place five $1 accumulator bets on Saturday's racing.
William Hill are now waiting for him to return and claim his winnings.
Damn, that's crazy... this guy parlayed 8 times??!!
SOUTHINGTON, Conn. -- This kid wants to coach, and he thinks big.
Joshua Irizarry is all of 12 years old. That hardly stopped him from applying for the job of football coach at West Virginia University.
Insisting it was a "completely serious offer," the Connecticut boy outlined his skills in a letter to West Virginia president Mike Garrison when the job opened in December. They included "making up new plays to fool defenses in local sandlot games."
The kid also has an eye for marketing.
"Consider the publicity your campus would receive," he wrote in the letter. "I understand this would be a move more suited for a team like Temple, but I am just asking for your consideration.
"Don't think of this as hiring a 12-year-old kid from a nowhere town, but think of this as hiring a dedicated football mind trying to help a team," he said. "I would work for any conditions you would wish to provide."
In the end, Garrison settled for what he assured the boy was "an equally qualified candidate" to succeed Rich Rodriguez, who quit in December for the same post at Michigan. Former WVU assistant coach Bill Stewart now holds the title.
But in February, the president honored the boy's two alternative requests -- a written response and an autographed photo of his favorite Mountaineer, freshman running back Noel Devine.
Garrison told The Associated Press on Friday he was impressed with the boy's passion.
"The lawyer side of me appreciated the arguments he used for why he should be considered for the job," he said. "The father side of me recognized a young man with a lot of determination and ambition."
Lina Irizarry told the Record-Journal of Meriden her son has been a fan of the Mountaineers since he began watching football at age 4. He learned of the vacancy on ESPN and asked if he could apply. Despite the obstacles -- he's 500 miles away and doesn't drive -- he insisted he would find a way to live on the campus in Morgantown, W.Va.
"I told him writing the cover letter wouldn't hurt," his mother said. "When he received the response, he just lit up."
Now Joshua hopes WVU will accept him as a student and teach him to be a coach or trainer.
"I told the president in an e-mail after to keep my letter on file," he said.
I love this story. I want to meet this kid. This takes balls... and what a way to gain a college admission. I wonder what his admissions essays are going to be like.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
I had to go to Houston so I left around 10:30. I don't have all of my trades with me, but I remember I got printed on NLY-A down low and I got out through the ECN cross immediately. Well, that son of a bitch went up like two points from where I got printed. Maybe on some of these slightly thinner stocks, like different class, I should hold them a little bit longer. It's just dangerous b/c they could go against me very quickly though. But since I had such a nice head start the next time I'll try to get more profits out of it.
I was putting my new rule of not trading EEM or SLV more than 5 times a day to practice. I only traded SLV once and I lost money on it and I let it go against me a little bit too much as well. I really have to be careful not letting it slip past my stop. I think it really force me to find good entries and enforce discipline.
There was some news about the Fed ready to add more liquidity for lending I think so the market reversed and filled the gap from this morning, which just didn't make sense to me. I still believe there's weakness out in the market and I wanted to find a spot to get short. I actually traded SKF long but I got stopped out. The first two trades on EEM I got stopped out, 20 cents each but the next two were 50, 60 cent winners so I'm happy with my risk reward. Actually the 2nd winner I thought about giving it another 20 cent pull back and try to let it ride out but for some reason I didn't and covered my short... not smart. I saw on the admin that Zach probably got short as well and he was covering on the way down. I kind of wished that I traded a 1,000 shares on that last EEM trade, would've been nice... but then again I might not be able to hold the winner as well if I did.
Up about $400 for the day. about $800, $850 for the week. It's nice to know that I can still trade and make some money. It's not as big of a up week as I'd like and I didn't beat the other guys in my class but I think this is a step in the positive direction and I'll try to do better next week heading into the FOMC meeting on the 19th and 20th.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
While playing ping pong and over hearing someone talking about a trade, it gives me the idea of putting some orders way out of the market and hoping someone will panic and get hit for a favorable print. I don't know if it'll work or not and it seems like a high risk idea. There's a possibility that I will have to hold the position over night and there's no guarantee that it'll go in my favor the next day.
I did get a chance to talk to Zach today. He trades EEM a lot. At first it doesn't seem like what he said is anything really that profound. It seems like what he's doing is trading the trend. Like today there's just weakness in the market and he's been shorting the bounces in the toward channel, which makes sense when I see the chart (but I wouldn't have thought of it at the time...). I gave it a try towards the close when futures made a small bounce, but not quite as high as the previous one and it worked pretty well. Although I should've held it a little bit longer though. He also says he tries not to chase it but instead maybe go in the other direction and wait for the other people to panic and cover. He also commented on trading it in comparison to the Dow, futures and SPY and the .IV value... but I need to think about what he said a little bit longer.
So I think what I'll try to do for now, is trade the trend, with less shares, maybe just 200 shares and give it about 20 cents. Oh and Zach says he tries to not trade it more than 5 times a day and I think that's a good idea. Although I might set a different number for myself but I think that'll force me to find good entries. It's like knowing if I only have bullets in my gun I would have to make nice shots. I've been trading SLV more lately off of GLD and I might enforce that rule on that stock as well.
Aite, some of the more interesting trades for today:
8:40am - FNM is tanking on news of a failed deal I think so I shorted FRE. I see that FNM started to bounce (but it didn't really... it just kept getting hammered) I got out of FRE. It did bounce quite a bit and I might've been stopped out as well if I stayed in it. I dunno, that was a tough trade. But eventually it did break down like FNM as well.
SLV... I need to be really careful b/c the book is thin and spread is big. It seems like it tends to go in my favor when the spread narrows, as if someone else out there is trying to get short or long the stock but didn't want to pay the spread. I really shouldn't add to my losers and need to have a predetermined absolute out in my mind before getting in the trade.
I had two trades in FLR and FCX, one break down and one break out trade respectively but I got wiggled out. I need to figure out a better way to trade break down and break outs, especially with these high dollar, fast moving stocks... right now I'm not trading them well at all.
Down maybe at most $100 today after commission. Not that bad... Still up for the week. Only trading half day tomorrow since I got to go to Houston so let's try to make smart trades.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
I tried trading the BIG and BJ breakout trades today and I didn't really do that well. BJ I thought it was breaking out, I added to it and eventually made some money on it except that it really did break out shortly after and I could've made a lot more, but this was after the ISM numbers came out and the futures shot up... I don't think I could've foreseen this so I'm going to let this one go. BIG broke out too but I saw that the futures was going down and I shorted it, added to it and eventually had to get out... just couldn't take the pain. Looking back at best I could've scratched the trade barely...
Crude inventory came out at 9:30am and it was below (inventory low = supply low = price up!) so I longed 200 shares of it at 80.67 and got out at 81.12... what a fool. It didn't hit 81.72 before retracing and just trade in a up channel the whole day to even 83.32. Ridiculous...
DBA break out trade was pretty good. Got long at 42.15 and I eventually got out on a 5 cent pull back at 42.3. I should've gave it a little more room. This one had no problem going to 42.50 at all.
In general I traded SLV pretty well. If GLD made a new intra day high and SLV hasn't really done anything yet than I'd get long and opposite if I think it's good enough. But there was one time that I accidentally shorted 1000 shares instead of 400 b/c I thought I had changed my quick share to 200 but it didn't and I lost about $500 on it. That rocked me pretty hard and I just went to play ping pong after that.
I managed to come back the rest of the day though. There's some news on CCU and bunch of other airline stocks and I either chumpped those or took a small loss. Up maybe $200 total.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
8:44am - JTX gapped down. I shorted at 14.27 and I actually added to it twice, hoping it won't break past the 15 whole number level. Looking back, even though I made money, it wasn't a very good trade. There was news, plus I didn't even really look at what the news was and I traded it. I did have a good idea of the resistance level though b/c this thing definitely didn't bounce past that. I could've shorted it again when it bounced up to that 15 dollar level at 10:30. I don't know... I wanted to believe that negative news stock tends to just inch down further. Who knows if that's true or not. I should make a note of where I see support and resistance and keep it there for the day and make sure to put them back in after I've traded the stock b/c sometimes the program cancels any stop alerts I have after I've exited out of the position.
8:57am - SGY was moving down and I believed it was going to break down past the 50 dollar level so I shorted some at 49.90 and 87. It did start to go in my favor but bounced off 49.60 and started going against me. First of all, I probably should've gotten out at 49.80 on the way back up to at least lock in some profit. Second of all, I can't believe I added to that position as well when it started going against me, but at least I've identified the absolute worst level that I'd have to get out at. I looked at the chart a little closer and the recent resistance was actually at 49.80 so I've actually been shorting into the support (ceiling that flipped to become a floor). Once it did go back to that price level I got out but it went down even further to about 49 whole number. Pull up the chart, make them bigger so easier to see and make better entries.
10:09am - Bought some SLV at 199.18, giving it 20 cents and I actually almost got stopped out. GLD had made a big down move and I thought it was bouncing. My target out was 199.80 and I put orders out at 199.84 but the 80's and 82's got hit. I figured that I shouldn't let this go past the 70's and when it did I hit the bid at 63. This was when I see that GLD just retraced and made new lows. Should've flipped and gone short as well.
10:17am - Longed SLV again @ 197.88 (see, I should've flipped to go short), same situation... looked at GLD, felt like it was going to bounce. When GLD stalled I got out @ 198.78, thank god b/c SLV moved all the way down to 195 before rebounding again.
10:21am - GLD was still going lower so was a lot of other commodities so I shorted SLV @ 197.66 but I got stopped out for a 25 cent lost... booo!
10:25am - DBA moved down sharply, might've been something to do w/ wheat prices. I felt like it was forming a floor at 41.50 so I got long @ 41.60 and added another 200 shares at 41.53. The floor broke and I got out of my long position at 47 and 48... decided to flip and go short at 46 and covered it 35. I was risking 4 or 5 cents and I made 11... it's ok I guess. This is another one where I should've identified the floor or ceiling and kept it in there or somehow make a note of it b/c it hit that 41.50 ceiling again and moved to as low as 40.50
1:20pm - Traded SLV a couple more times. Shorted, added a little bit and finally covered when I see I would not have size to get out at. Got long after seeing GLD keeps going up, made about 50 cents on it but it moved another point past that...
1:58pm - FE moved up sharply and after the news guy says no new news everybody started shorting it. I did too @ 70.23 but I only made about 25 cents on it... SUPER MEGA CHUMP. It was going so strong it actually went to about 69 whole number. stupid!
I've actually thought that I would lose money trading SLV b/c it's much thinner and moves a lot quicker and more erratically compared to GLD but so far I've been doing pretty well on it since I'm controlling my down sides pretty well and when I do have a winner I let it go at least 80 cents or try to make a point on it. We'll see how that continues to work out for me.
Made about $500. It's giving me some confidence in that I still know how to trade.
Monday, March 3, 2008
8:05am - GLD and SLV (up almost 6 points) is going nuts right now pre market. I'll be watching this closely.
8:28am - News on TMA about margin call.
8:40am - TMA keeps moving lower, shorted TMA-F @13.33. Risking 15 cents. Put my bid out at 13.01 and got taken. Decent risk reward.
8:59am - shorted POL after a big up move at 6.65 with out at 6.70... it started moving towards my favor but bidders keep coming in. I decided to scratch the trade at 6.64
9:04am - Futures just made a huge up move after the ISM number... trying to get short after seeing SPY stalling and retracing a bit. Shorted EEM but got stop out w/ a 15 cent loss
9:14am - I think SPY was breaking resistance, set a 10 cent stop... got stopped out.
9:17am - SPY broke resistance level at 133.40 so I longed EEM @ 139.74... 15 cent stop, wanted to see if it could break whole # and it did. Got out most of my shares at 140.02.
9:23am - shorted EEM, 15 cent stop loss from the top... it started going down when futures was going down but not as much but then my stop got hit when it made a small up move.
9:28am - longed SLV, GLD look like it was bouncing after some retracement. Got stopped out on my 15 cent stop. SLV continued going the direction I thought it would... stop might've been too tight. maybe try 20 cents in the future
9:31am - Shorted DBA at 43, risking 5 to 10 cents, got out at 42.80. Good trade
9:59am - shorted SPY after breaking what I think is a support level at 133. shorted 200 shares at 132.9 and added to it at 133.03. I was going to cover it all at 133.10. After seeing it go down to 132.8 but stalled and actually bounced off that level couple of times, I got out on its way back up at 132.9. Not great.
10:55am - after watching CZZ for awhile, touching 16 whole number and retracing I finally longed it at 16.15 thinking it's going to break out. I set my stop at 16 whole number but for some reason it got triggered and I got filled at 16.03 and 16.01... weird.
I started trading EEM and SPY in the afternoon, usually 200 shares... it didn't quite work out =( Down maybe $160 today.
March, spring time, it's time to go back to sticking to my routines and preparation... whether they are superstition or not. Scalp at the open, reversal trades after an hour or so and under trade during lunch time. I have to eat breakfast. I have to get my sleep. If I'm lying there and can't fall asleep then I have to go run (and I don't like to run...). A lot of times I have trouble falling asleep b/c my mind is just way to active. I don't think it's b/c I'm stressed out. I hope it's not b/c I'm stressed out. Anyway, I would end up going to sleep at 2, 3am or sometimes even 5am and end up oversleeping and miss the open, aka prime time to make money.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Ok, I just have to get that out of my system first. No, I don't have Tourette all of a sudden. It's just extremly frustrating to be down so much in the month of February. Knowing that I'm capable of making a grand or two per day, it sucks to not make that and on top of it lose big... It's difficult to know that if I work harder it doesn't necessarily mean that I'll make more if the market is not there. I suppose you have to chalk this up to tuition for a lesson on position sizing.
Yes, I thought about quitting. That doesn't make me a bad person. I know I was just thinking that b/c things aren't going well. I don't like to quit just b/c things are tough. This was the same situation when I was in PPA and when I was working with Southwestern. I'm not a quitter. But... at the same time, I had to really think about if this is what I want to do. If I'm able to commit to this.
Well, the best thing about February? It's OVER. I'm not sure how but I managed to go from wanting to quit to actually excited about learning again, especially to see if I can gain any insight from Zach Odom about how to trade EEM. Here are the goals for the month of March:
Profit goals: $7,000
Never hit my daily loss limit (if I'm down $500 then it's time to scale back, not be more aggressive)
Get to the office before 8am everyday
Miss no more than 3 days.
Review trades, even just the biggest winners and loser, everyday